Powell's Speech Stabilizes Expectations, Copper Prices Declined Last Friday Night [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM March 10 News: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,679/mt, initially reaching a high of $9,691.5/mt. It then fluctuated downward, briefly rebounded during the session, and continued to decline, touching a low of $9,564/mt near the close. It slightly rebounded at the end, finally settling at $9,602/mt, down 0.9%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 303,000 lots. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2504 contract opened at 78,440 yuan/mt, fluctuated initially, and touched a low of 78,330 yuan/mt. It then surged to a high of 78,910 yuan/mt during the session, fluctuated downward near the close, and finally settled at 78,430 yuan/mt, down 0.34%. Trading volume reached 36,000 lots, and open interest stood at 169,000 lots. Macro side, last week, Trump's erratic trade policies heightened market concerns over a US economic recession. Coupled with mixed February non-farm payrolls data, February non-farm payrolls recorded 151,000, slightly below market expectations, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, the highest since November 2024. The labour market slowed, and US equities fluctuated under pressure. Last Friday, Powell also spoke to stabilize market expectations, stating that there was no rush to cut interest rates before the impact of Trump's policies became clearer, leading to a pullback in copper prices. This week, US inflation data will be the market's focal point. Fundamentally, copper prices have recently fluctuated upward, with downstream enterprises primarily purchasing as needed, and market trading sentiment remains relatively cautious. Looking ahead to this week, as the delivery date approaches, suppliers are expected to maintain a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, with prices likely to remain firm. However, due to the pressure from abundant warehouse warrant resources, spot premiums and discounts are unlikely to see significant upward movement. In terms of prices, overseas tariffs continue to disrupt the market, the US dollar index remains low, and domestic policy expectations provide strong support, creating an overall positive outlook. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at highs today.