SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Upward as Policy Support Bolsters the Market Amid the Tug-of-War Between Supply and Demand [SMM Tin Midday Review]

​Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract on March 6, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2504) exhibited an overall upward fluctuation pattern. By midday, the most-traded contract closed at 258,110 yuan/mt, a slight increase of 0.54% compared to the previous day's closing price, with an intraday high of 259,000 yuan/mt. Market trading sentiment has slightly improved compared to recent days.

Macro Front Provides Strong Support:
The US February ADP employment data significantly missed expectations (only increasing by 77,000), causing the US dollar index to pull back to the 104 level. Domestically, the Two Sessions continued to release favorable policies. The government work report proposed a fiscal deficit ratio of 4% for 2025, with the combined scale of new special bonds and local government bonds exceeding 11 trillion yuan. Market expectations for growth-stabilizing policies have risen, and Chinese assets broadly closed higher.

Supply and Demand Fundamentals Show Mixed Signals:
Supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is still expected, but actual resumption requires a three-month preparation period, leaving the short-term tight supply situation unresolved. In the DRC, escalating M23 armed conflicts threaten local tin ore transportation, further increasing supply uncertainties. Domestic smelters' operating rates remain low, spot market supply is tight, and inventory-wise, LME tin inventory has continued to decline to 3,750 mt, while domestic social inventory shows significant buildup.

Demand side, downstream buying-the-dip sentiment has improved, and spot transactions have warmed up compared to earlier periods, though overall demand remains driven by immediate needs. Growth in demand from the electronics and new energy sectors supports tin prices, but traditional consumption sectors remain weak, with market sentiment still cautious.

Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis:
Futures prices continue to fluctuate at highs, with the MACD indicator showing strengthened bullish momentum. However, resistance remains at the key level of 260,000 yuan/mt. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of Myanmar's production resumption, fluctuations in the US dollar index, and the pace of policy implementation from the Two Sessions. SHFE tin is expected to continue fluctuating upward, with a focus on potential breakthroughs in the 255,000-260,000 yuan/mt range.