Export Window Closes, Alumina Prices Under Pressure [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Mar 5, 2025 09:03
[SMM Morning Comment on Alumina: Export Window Closes, Alumina Prices Under Pressure] Recently, domestic spot alumina prices have stopped falling, mainly due to increased demand for alumina exports and transfer to delivery warehouse, which has boosted alumina prices. In the short term, spot alumina prices in some regions have rebounded slightly. However, overseas alumina prices have declined, and the export window has essentially closed. The transfer to delivery warehouse cannot provide sustained demand, and the market is expected to see some new alumina capacity gradually come online. From a medium and long-term perspective, spot alumina prices remain under pressure. In the short term, spot alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment. Continuous attention should be paid to the profitability of alumina exports and changes in bauxite prices.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
๊ณ ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ €์ˆ˜์š”์— ์ค‘๋ถ€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์‹œ์žฅ ํ• ์ธํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
6๋ถ„ ์ „
๊ณ ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ €์ˆ˜์š”์— ์ค‘๋ถ€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์‹œ์žฅ ํ• ์ธํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ณ ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ €์ˆ˜์š”์— ์ค‘๋ถ€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์‹œ์žฅ ํ• ์ธํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
๊ณ ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ €์ˆ˜์š”์— ์ค‘๋ถ€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์‹œ์žฅ ํ• ์ธํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
7์›” ๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ์™€ ๊ณ ์˜จ์ด ๊ฒน์น˜๋ฉด์„œ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ค‘๋ถ€ ์ง€์—ญ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ฐ€๊ณต์—…์ฒด ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ์ด ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ์œ ์ง€๋˜๊ณ  ๊ตฌ๋งค ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ๋„ ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€์ง„ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋†’์€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ํŠธ๋ ˆ์ด๋”๋“ค์˜ ํ—ค์ง€ ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ• ์ธํญ ํ™•๋Œ€์™€ ์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ๋“œ ์ฐจ์ต ํฌ์ฐฉ์„ ๋ถ€์ถ”๊ธฐ๋ฉฐ ์ด๋“ค์˜ ๋งค์ˆ˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์€ ๋น„๊ต์  ๊ฐ•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•œํŽธ, ๊ณต๊ธ‰์—…์ฒด๋“ค์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ณ ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐ ๋งค๋„ ์˜์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋šœ๋ ทํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ž‘์šฉํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์‹œ์žฅ ํ• ์ธํญ์„ ๋”์šฑ ๋Œ์–ด์˜ฌ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ค‘๋ถ€ ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ์‹ค์ œ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ๋Œ€๋Š” SHFE ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ 8์›”๋ฌผ ๋Œ€๋น„ ํ†ค๋‹น 130~170์œ„์•ˆ ํ• ์ธ ์ˆ˜์ค€์„ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ ํ˜•์„ฑ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
6๋ถ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ์ค€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ง€์†, ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์ด ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋‹จ์˜ ํƒ„๋ ฅ์„ฑ ๊ฐ•ํ™” [SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋ฏธํŒ… ํšŒ์˜๋ก]
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ์ค€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ง€์†, ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์ด ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋‹จ์˜ ํƒ„๋ ฅ์„ฑ ๊ฐ•ํ™” [SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋ฏธํŒ… ํšŒ์˜๋ก]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ์ค€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ง€์†, ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์ด ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋‹จ์˜ ํƒ„๋ ฅ์„ฑ ๊ฐ•ํ™” [SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋ฏธํŒ… ํšŒ์˜๋ก]
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ์ค€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ง€์†, ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์ด ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋‹จ์˜ ํƒ„๋ ฅ์„ฑ ๊ฐ•ํ™” [SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋ฏธํŒ… ํšŒ์˜๋ก]
[๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ์ค€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ง€์†, ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์ด ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์˜ ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ ํƒ„๋ ฅ์„ฑ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจ] ์ข…ํ•ฉ ์ „๋ง์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ•์„ธ ํ๋ฆ„ ์†์— ํšก๋ณดํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ €ํ•ญ์— ๋ถ€๋”ชํž ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
Cost and Demand Dual Pressure, ADC12 Quotation Center Shifts Down [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
Cost and Demand Dual Pressure, ADC12 Quotation Center Shifts Down [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
Cost and Demand Dual Pressure, ADC12 Quotation Center Shifts Down [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]
Cost and Demand Dual Pressure, ADC12 Quotation Center Shifts Down [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]
[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cost and Demand Pressure Pushing ADC12 Quotation Center Lower] Yesterday, ADC12 market quotations overall consolidated on a subdued note, with SMM ADC12 price dropping 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Aluminum prices pulled back and cast aluminum alloy futures weakened, weighing on market sentiment, and enterprise quotation centers moved down in tandem with the cost side. Meanwhile, downstream demand continued to weaken, and the trading atmosphere was subdued, further sapping enterprises' willingness to hold prices firm. Overall, as cost support weakened and off-season demand characteristics became more evident, the ADC12 market will mainly move sideways on a subdued note in the short term.
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „