The Rebound of the US Dollar Index Combined With Strengthened Expectations of Resumed Production in Wa State, Myanmar, Suppresses SHFE Tin Futures, Which Opened Lower and Plunged Quickly [SMM Tin Brief Review]

Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract on February 27, 2025 

On February 27, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2504) opened at 263,320 yuan/mt, reached an intraday high of 263,900 yuan/mt, and a low of 253,220 yuan/mt, before closing at 254,010 yuan/mt, down 9,720 yuan from the previous trading day, a decline of 3.69%. The trading volume amounted to 36.596 billion yuan, with open interest fluctuating slightly.

Today, SHFE tin futures exhibited a rangebound fluctuation trend. Pressured by strengthened expectations of production resumption in Wa State, Myanmar and a rebound in the US dollar index, prices opened lower and quickly plunged, briefly breaking below the 254,000 yuan/mt support level during the session. Although there was a slight rebound at midday, persistent pressure from bearish funds pushed prices to close at the intraday low. Technically, the most-traded SHFE tin contract broke below the lower boundary of the 260,000-265,000 yuan/mt fluctuation range. The MACD indicator showed a significant expansion of green bars, and the short-term moving average system displayed a bearish alignment, indicating a clear weakening of the technical pattern.

• US Dollar Strengthens: The US dollar index rose to 106.69, with expectations of the US Fed maintaining high interest rates in March intensifying. Coupled with the disruption from the US imposing additional tariffs on the EU, risk assets faced broad pressure.

• Domestic Policy: PBOC Deputy Governor Lei Lu emphasized the optimization of structural monetary policy tools, but market expectations for liquidity easing failed to offset macroeconomic headwinds.

In the short term, SHFE tin futures are expected to continue to fluctuate downward, with the main trading range referenced at 248,000-258,000 yuan/mt.