The Market Remains Cautious About the March Rate Meeting; Significant Resistance at 265,000 Yuan/mt for SHFE Tin [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On February 19, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2503) fluctuated downward. The opening price was 262,320 yuan/mt, slightly lower than the previous trading day's settlement price. During the session, it reached a high of 262,880 yuan/mt and a low of 259,990 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 261,550 yuan/mt, down 0.34% from the previous day's settlement price. The daily trading volume amounted to 13.211 billion yuan.

  Domestic inventory buildup intensified: Tin inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 6,736 mt, up by 431 mt compared to the previous trading day.  
 
1. US Dollar Index Pulled Back: Weak US retail sales data for January caused the US dollar index to fluctuate around 107, providing short-term valuation support for the non-ferrous metals sector. However, US Fed Governor Bowman emphasized the need for more evidence of declining inflation before cutting interest rates, leading to cautious market sentiment ahead of the March policy meeting and suppressing risk appetite.  
2. Domestic Policy Expectations: With the Two Sessions approaching, six departments are promoting medium and long-term capital inflows into the market. Expectations of increased holdings by insurance funds, state-backed funds, and foreign capital inflows have strengthened, while incremental ETF funds are providing liquidity support to the market. However, the anticipated future resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and Indonesia poses potential bearish risks to the supply side.  
3. Geopolitical Disruptions: The Alphamin mine in the DRC faces potential threats from ongoing conflicts, coupled with the impact of Trump's tariff policies on demand expectations in the electronics industry chain, raising concerns about the stability of overseas supply.  

Currently, the resistance level at 265,000 yuan/mt is significantly suppressing upward momentum, as indicated by the shortening of MACD indicator red bars, reflecting weakened upward momentum. In the short term, the support level is observed in the range of 255,000-260,000 yuan/mt.