Market Supply and Demand Show Signs of Recovery, Manufacturing Recovery Supports Tin Demand [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

With the manufacturing PMI returning above the 50 mark in October after five months, both supply and demand in the market show clear signs of recovery. Against this macro backdrop, tin prices have also seen a significant rebound, and the driving factors behind this are worth a deep analysis. From the supply and demand fundamentals, the recovery in manufacturing has provided solid support for tin demand. As enterprise production accelerates and the new orders index rises, related industry chains such as electronics and electrical industries also show active trends. The recovery of these industries directly boosts the demand for downstream tin-related products, and it is expected that the order volume of downstream tin enterprises will reflect this in the near future. On the supply side, there is still no news of resumption in the Wa State region of Myanmar, leading to relatively tight market supply. With the recovery in demand, the tight supply situation gradually becomes apparent, providing momentum for the rise in tin prices. Besides the improvement in supply and demand fundamentals, policy factors also play a significant role in the rise of tin prices. The intensified introduction of a package of incremental policies and the gradual manifestation of the effects of existing policies jointly inject strong momentum into stable economic growth. Especially in areas such as consumption, special bond issuance and debt resolution, and real estate, policy support is expected to further boost YoY GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter, creating a favorable macro environment for the price increase of industrial metals like tin. Additionally, the smooth transition of new and old momentum also provides new driving forces for the rise in tin prices, with market demand continuously growing. The rise of these emerging industries not only opens up new space for the increase in tin prices but also injects new vitality into the long-term development of the tin industry. In summary, the rise in tin prices benefits from the dual support of improved supply and demand fundamentals and policy factors. Looking ahead, with the steady recovery of the macro economy and the continuous development of emerging industries, tin prices are expected to continue their upward trend. However, it is also necessary to closely monitor international market dynamics and domestic and foreign policy changes to guard against potential market risks.