China's Magnesium Ingot Exports Decreased by 13.9% MoM in July, What's Next for the Magnesium Market? [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, China exported 19,427 mt of magnesium ingots in July 2024, down 13.9% MoM and up 0.2% YoY, with cumulative exports up 23.5% YoY.

Export destinations in July 2024 were mainly the Netherlands, Canada, South Korea, India, and the UAE, which accounted for about 59% of total exports. Exports to the Netherlands were approximately 4,296 mt (accounting for 22%, down 38.7% MoM); to Canada 2,205 mt (accounting for 11%, up 52.1% MoM); to South Korea 1,689 mt (accounting for 9%, down 12.8% MoM); to Japan 1,637 mt (accounting for 6%, up 15.2% MoM); and to the UAE 1,622 mt (accounting for 8%, up 87.7% MoM). Exports to Rotterdam, a key European hub, decreased by 38.7% MoM due to the European summer holiday. With the end of the summer holiday, demand for magnesium ingots in the European market is expected to see a slight rebound.

Guangdong was the top exporter in July 2024 with 7,431 mt (38% of total exports), followed by Shanxi with 6,687 mt (34%), and Zhejiang with 2,008 mt (10%).

For other magnesium products, China exported 7,241 mt of magnesium alloys in July 2024, down 8.8% MoM and 15.0% YoY, with cumulative exports down 11.5% YoY. Magnesium powder exports were 6,689 mt, down 3.1% MoM and up 17.0% YoY, with cumulative exports up 17.6% YoY. According to SMM, overseas magnesium alloy markets are gradually shifting to "de-magnesium" or "replacing magnesium with aluminum" due to volatile magnesium prices, leading to reduced confidence in the market application of magnesium alloys and a contraction in the overseas market. SMM also reported that due to weak global end-user demand, overseas steel mills have reduced their operating rates to maintain relatively stable profit margins, resulting in a 3.1% MoM decrease in China's magnesium powder exports in July. However, the overall demand for magnesium powder in the overseas market has significantly recovered due to the decline in magnesium ingot prices.

Overall, China's magnesium ingot exports in July 2024 slightly decreased compared to June, mainly due to a reduction of 2,707 mt in exports to the Netherlands. According to SMM, in August 2024, the Ukraine attack on Russia's Kursk region may affect a key transit point for Russian natural gas to Europe, raising concerns about a significant increase in natural gas prices by over 5%. As of now, natural gas prices remain high, and there are fears of a repeat of the 2022 energy crisis, leading to heightened market tension. Despite this, the operating conditions of overseas aluminium enterprises have not significantly changed, and China's magnesium ingot exports are expected to see a slight MoM increase in September.