US Core PCE Missed Market Expectations, Copper Futures Prices Rebounded Last Friday Evening

LME copper closed at $8,675/mt last Friday evening, a gain of 1.45%. Trading volume was 13,000 lots and open interest stood at 278,000 lots. SHFE 2309 copper contract finished at 69,400 yuan/mt last Friday evening, up 0.8%. Trading volume was 38,000 lots, and open interest stood at 189,000 lots. On the macro front, the annualised core PCE price index in the United States was 4.1% in June, which was lower than market expectations, fuelling market bets that the Fed may end the monetary tightening cycle. The US dollar index fell slightly, bolstering copper prices.

As of Friday July 28, SMM data showed that copper inventory across major Chinese markets stood at 99,200 mt, down 9,800 mt from last Monday and down 16,700 mt from two Fridays ago. Inventories have fallen for three consecutive weeks. Due to the low arrivals of imported copper and domestic copper in east China as well as relatively strong downstream purchasing, inventories in east China declined. Inventory in south China dropped has declined amid weak supply and demand. Consumption is expected to increase. It is expected that copper prices will remain rangebound at high levels due to market expectations over Fed ending monetary tightening.