SMM: the rally that the gold market has just begun has been hit again this week by vaccine news, with spot gold prices weakening to below $1880 an ounce.
Gary Wagner, an analyst at Thegoldforcast, said that from a technical point of view, there was a "dead cross" in the gold market, which meant that it could fall further.
This is the first time since January that gold's 50-day moving average has fallen below its 100-day moving average.
The so-called technical side of the "dead fork", in most cases to the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average. But on the whole, the short-term moving average falling below the long-term moving average can be regarded as a "dead fork".
After the 50-day moving average of gold broke through the 100-day moving average in January, the bullish trend was formed and gold prices continued to rise.
Wagner pointed out that the gold market has been in the new market in the nine months since January, with particular attention to the fact that the spread between the two averages has remained around $60 and moved higher together. By the end of September, the difference between the two averages had widened to $100.
"the widening spread occurs when gold prices have peaked and fallen, indicating that the technical signal of the moving average is slightly behind. The change in the price difference between the two in October has finally led to the current dead fork. "
At present, gold's 50-day moving average is around $1908 / oz, while its 100-day moving average is around $1910 / oz.
Historically, there was a dead end in the bear markets in 1929, 1938, 1974 and 2008.
Wagner pointed out that as far as the gold market is concerned, the 50-day moving average, 100-day moving average and 200-day moving average have always been in a state of collective rise, so this change needs to be vigilant.
