SMM6 March 30: most of the outer disk metal market was red yesterday, and Lun copper prices fell on Tuesday as the increase in novel coronavirus infection strengthened the dollar and raised questions about the rapid recovery of some economies, while ample supply weakened the attractiveness of copper. Most of the LME metal markets are red today. By about 09:30 in the morning, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 0.7%, Lun lead rose nearly 1.2%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.1%, Lun Nickel fell nearly 0.2%, Lunxi was flat. Domestically, international copper rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai Copper rose nearly 0.2%, Shanghai Aluminum fell nearly 0.1%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 3%, and Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 1%. Shanghai nickel rose, Shanghai tin rose nearly 0.4%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, overnight US economic data showed that consumer confidence hit its highest level since the outbreak in June, and house prices rose the most in more than 30 years in April. Meanwhile, as the economy restarted, the eurozone's economic confidence index rose to its highest level in more than two decades in June, while US stocks hit a record high on optimistic expectations of an economic recovery. But last night, the dollar index was hit by a rise in 10-year Treasury yields and a stronger-than-expected consumer confidence index, returning to the 92 mark and putting some pressure on copper futures. On the spot side.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper futures continue to fluctuate due to the rising US dollar. Follow the PMI figures of various countries today.
In terms of aluminum, from a fundamental point of view, the progress of resumption of production in supply-side Yunnan is still relatively slow, while the production progress of major new projects in Guizhou, Yunnan and Guangxi has been continuously delayed, and the main downstream plates such as demand-end profiles, strip and foil have gradually stepped into the off-season, so the weak pattern of supply and demand in the aluminum market is expected to become more prominent, while the gradual weakening of consumption will continue to narrow the range of de-depooling, and the inflection point may appear in July. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum prices will still fluctuate within the current range in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Balianyang continues to pay close attention to the release of macro-level news on the outside, strong on the inside and weak on the inside.
In terms of lead, overnight, Lunlun lead stocks continued to decline to an 11-month low. Tizhenlun lead once again rose to eight Lianyang, brushing a new three-year high. In the day, we are concerned about whether Lunlun lead can keep up the rise and stand firm at the level of 2300 US dollars / ton. Overnight multi-head entry, boosted Shanghai lead to break through the previous pressure level, closed up sharply, but the domestic lead effect market trading activity is general, downstream purchase is limited. The fundamentals of lead ingots are strong on the outside and weak on the inside, the Hu-Lun ratio narrows rapidly, the export window of lead ingots opens, or the pattern of domestic supply surplus is alleviated, and the overall center of gravity of lead prices rises It is expected that the average price of SMM1# lead today.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] lead continues to be strong on the outside and weak on the inside. The overall center of gravity rises.
In terms of zinc, the overnight outer disk uplink led to the strong performance of Shanghai zinc, and the current domestic zinc ingot inventory is low, overseas demand has rebounded steadily, while macro mood repair has boosted zinc prices, but the medium-and long-term domestic fundamental supply and demand pattern remains unchanged. Material limits the upward height of zinc prices, and zinc prices in the two cities are expected to rise and fall today.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] overnight macro sentiment led to vigilance against the risk of zinc prices rising and falling.
For the black system, the thread rose nearly 0.3%, the hot coil rose nearly 0.5%, the coking coal fell nearly 0.2%, the coke fell nearly 0.9%, the iron ore fell nearly 0.7%, and stainless steel rose nearly 0.9%. In terms of hot rolls, according to SMM statistics, this week it is estimated that the total resources of hot rolls in the market will reach 233000 tons, down 32800 tons from the previous month, or 12%. At present, the resources on the way to Shanghai are less than those in the previous period. At the same time, the anniversary celebration of the founding of the Party has led to a large-scale reduction in production of steel mills in Tangshan, automobile transportation and terminal loading and unloading are all restricted. It is expected that the pressure of arrival in the Shanghai market will ease in the next 1-2 weeks. Follow-up, sheet terminal demand is weak, merchants shipping is weak, after the founding of the party anniversary celebration, we need to guard against the risk of pullback brought by production restrictions and weak supply and demand fundamentals.
[summary of SMM Iron and Steel Morning meeting] yesterday, the price in the spot market of the port was raised by 10-15 yuan / ton.
Crude oil rose nearly 0.2% in the previous period, and international crude oil futures rose slightly on Tuesday, as the market continued to hope for a recovery in demand, driven by comments by Secretary General (OPEC) of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC), which slightly outweighed the impact of travel restrictions caused by a highly contagious Delta (Delta) novel coronavirus variant.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.9%, Shanghai silver fell nearly 1.1%, and international gold futures prices fell to their lowest level since mid-April on Tuesday, as the dollar strengthened ahead of this week's US jobs report, which is expected to be stronger and may consolidate the recent hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (FED/ Fed).
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
"Click to see more SMM metal prices.
![[SMM Analyse Macro] Jackson Hole signale une Fed restrictive, renforçant les attentes d'une hausse des taux en septembre](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VCNvX20251217171735.jpeg)
