Tongwei's 150000 tons of silicon production capacity is expected to release silicon supply as scheduled or continue to be tight in the short to medium term.

With the continuous upsurge of the silicon material market, the silicon material market is surging, and the industry companies have added to this field one after another. In this context, whether 600438.SH can further consolidate its leading position in silicon has become the focus of investors' attention.

On May 7, at the site of the annual shareholders' meeting of Tongwei shares, the company executives said that the company's silicon material and other related production capacity under construction will be released as scheduled, and it is expected that the silicon supply will still be in a tight situation in the next 18 months or more. Silicon prices and prices continue to improve. Industry analysts believe that the improved Siemens method adopted by Tongwei shares has advantages, cost control is dominant, and it is still optimistic about Tongwei's leading position.

The silicon market will continue to improve and Tongwei's 150000 tons of production capacity will be released as scheduled.

A reporter from the Financial Associated Press learned from a photovoltaic industry professional that as of April 28 this year, domestic polysilicon material 9N (single crystal material) was quoted at 145000 yuan / ton-170000 yuan / ton, compared with 81000 yuan / ton-88000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this year, an increase of 79.01%. 93.18%; the global polysilicon material has increased by more than 100% compared with the beginning of the year. On-site company insiders said that the current average price of silicon is more than 150000 yuan / ton.

According to a reporter from the Financial Associated Press, the installed capacity of photovoltaic downstream in the first quarter is the traditional off-season, the fourth quarter is the peak season, and the installed capacity in the first quarter of this year is in a downward trend compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Against this background, silicon prices have repeatedly hit new highs. What are the reasons behind it?

Xie Yi, chairman of Tongwei Co., Ltd., analyzed at the meeting that due to the low return on investment in silicon projects and the small expansion of production in the industry in the past few years, the current supply of silicon materials is insufficient; therefore, the rise in silicon prices is only the reflection of the changes in the relationship between supply and demand between silicon materials and silicon rods.

Xie Yi said on the spot that the silicon supply will remain tight in the next 18 months or more, and silicon prices may continue to rise, mainly due to the difficulty of expanding production, the long construction period and the installed capacity of downstream power stations. "Silicon is a link with relatively high risk, difficult control, high technical content and high capital investment, and the construction cycle of silicon projects is longer, which takes 18 months or more, and requires debugging, climbing, and so on," he said. "therefore, it is expected that the silicon material will remain tight in the next 18 months or more." In addition, Xie Yi believes that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the installation of photovoltaic power stations will gradually start in the second half of the year, further aggravating the shortage of silicon materials.

According to the annual report of Tongwei shares, the capacity to be released soon includes Leshan Phase II 50,000 tons of high purity crystal silicon project, Yunnan Baoshan Phase I 50,000 tons of high purity crystal silicon project, and Baotou Phase II 50,000 tons of high purity crystal silicon project; data show that Leshan and Baoshan two major projects will be put into production by the end of 2021, while Baotou project will be put into production by the end of 2022.

"of the three projects being built by Silicon material, the Leshan project is expected to be completed in October and the Baoshan project in Yunnan is expected to start production in November this year," said a senior executive at Tongwei. "

According to the annual report, by the end of last year, Tongwei had formed an annual production capacity of 80, 000 tons of high-purity silicon; last year, the output of high-purity silicon was 86200 tons, with sales of 86600 tons, an increase of 33.92% and 35.79% respectively over the same period last year. In the business plan, the company said that the high-purity silicon business strives to achieve production and sales of 100000 tons in 2021. If Leshan, Baoshan 100000 tons of production capacity as scheduled, the company is expected to form 180000 tons of silicon production capacity by the end of this year.

People in the industry are still optimistic about the leading position of Tongwei.

As the silicon market continues to improve, industry companies have added to the track. According to the reporter's understanding, at present, the domestic market Oriental Hope, Poly Xiexin (03800.HK), computer numerical Control (603185.SH), Daquan New Energy, New Special Energy and Asian Silicon Industry have all been laid out on the silicon track; Poly Xiexin has a production capacity of 105000 tons in 2020, 72000 tons of new and special energy, 70, 000 tons of Oriental Hope and 70, 000 tons of Daquan new energy.

Recently, CNC also extended its tentacles into the upstream silicon market, and joined hands with Poly Xiexin to invest 3 billion yuan to expand 300000 tons of granular silicon production capacity. Investors are worried about whether it will threaten Tongwei's leading position in silicon.

According to a photovoltaic industry source told the Financial Associated Press, Tongwei shares of high-purity silicon production using the improved Siemens method.

Duan Yong, chairman of Yongxiang Co., a subsidiary of the listed company, said: "Yongxiang has been firmly following the improved Siemens method, focusing on the quality and cost of the core competitiveness of products. Siemens method has been developed for decades. Large-scale application has become very mature. More than 80% of Yongxiang's Phase I and Phase II projects can make N-shaped materials, 99% or even more than 100% can be single crystal materials. In terms of cost, the second phase of the project will be reduced by 10% on the basis of the first phase, and there will be less and less room for cost reduction in the future. Yongxiang technology has already iterated to the sixth generation, and we still have enough concentration and confidence to continue to work. "

The above industry analysts believe that: "Tongwei operation is doing well, cost control is dominant, and individuals are bullish on Tongwei at present."

It is worth mentioning that the photovoltaic plate battery business has been profitable for 80 months. "there is no problem with 100 months of continuous profitability," the company executive said. " The company said in its business plan that the solar cell business strives to exceed the production and sales of 30GW in 2021, and the photovoltaic business is expected to invest more than 1GW in the construction of the "Yuguang Integration" project. In the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, the company's feed, food and related industrial chain business strives to achieve an annual revenue growth of more than 10% over the same period last year, exceeding 23 billion yuan.