SMM3, March 23: metal in the outer disk was generally red yesterday, and Lun Aluminum on Monday rose to its highest level since June 2018, as investors worried that China's efforts to reduce pollution from smelters would limit production and fall short of demand. China accounts for about 60 per cent of global aluminium production, but the government is expected to curb capacity growth, and Inner Mongolia ordered the closure of some smelters this month. Analysts point out that if production in the world's largest producer is limited and demand increases, the hope of a more balanced market in the coming years looks unlikely. Soaring transport costs, surging demand and tight supplies of raw and scrap aluminium are likely to push prices higher further, especially in importing countries such as the US and Europe. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. By around 09:30, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.1%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.3%, Lunxi Nickel fell nearly 0.1%, Lunxi fell nearly 0.6%, Lun lead rose nearly 0.2%. Domestically, international copper and Shanghai Copper rose nearly 0.8%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 0.7%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 1%, and Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 0.9%. In China, international copper and Shanghai copper rose nearly 0.8%, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 0.7%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 1%, and Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.9%. Shanghai tin rose nearly 1%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a speech prepared for the US House of Representatives hearing that the recovery is far from complete and the Fed will continue to provide support. In addition, the Biden administration is expected to put forward a $3 trillion economic development plan this week, involving infrastructure and tax increases, aimed at boosting the economy, reducing carbon emissions and economic inequality.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] optimism during the pick-up period, the spot price of copper may be difficult to break.
In terms of aluminum, Shanghai Aluminum continues to fluctuate in a high and wide range on the disk. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory is about to enter the destocking cycle, and the downstream demand is picking up, which brings some emotional support to the spot aluminum ingot absolute price, but it will take time for the spot to digest the high absolute price, and the discount pattern may continue. Medium-term continue to pay attention to long short mood changes, it is recommended to increase shipments upstream, downstream procurement on demand-based, careful to chase high.
[minutes of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] Shanghai Aluminum further narrows the growth rate of inventory consolidation around the Wanqi line.
In terms of lead, yesterday, due to the end of the continuous accumulation of lead in Shanghai, there are expectations of environmental production restrictions on the supply side, releasing some pressure. Superimposed overnight, there was a general rise in non-ferrous metals at home and abroad, and the confidence of bulls doubled, increasing the position to enter the market, boosting Shanghai lead to test the first line of 15200 yuan / ton upward, recording a long shadow line post, and paying attention to whether Shanghai lead can continue to stand up and stabilize the first line of 15200 yuan / ton during the day. Today's spot lead is expected to be higher than that of yesterday.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead companies held steady in Shanghai overnight, lead closed up yesterday, spot price rose to maintain high prices downstream.
In terms of zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a small positive pillar, the daily K center of gravity moved upward, the upper Bollinger Road was pressed on the track, and the lower short moving average provided support. According to the latest customs data, imported zinc concentrate from January to February 2021 decreased by 13000 physical tons compared with the same period last year, the tight pattern of mine supply has not changed, and the superimposed social inventory has been reduced again, providing support for zinc prices, which are expected to continue to operate strongly.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc inventory continues to be removed and the price center of gravity moves up again.
In terms of black series, threads fell nearly 1.5%, hot rolls rose nearly 0.1%, coking coal fell nearly 1.2%, coke fell nearly 1.8%, iron ore rose nearly 0.3%, and stainless steel rose nearly 1.2%. Last Friday, Tangshan issued an annual production limit document. Except for Shougang Jingtang and Shougang Qian'an steel mills, other local steel mills in Tangshan were required to implement differential production limits from March 20 to December 31, according to SMM estimates. If implemented in strict accordance with the documents, the impact of iron ore demand for the whole year is as high as 51.59 million tons; Affected by this, Liantie continued to open low yesterday, with the main contract I2105 falling by as much as 5.9% throughout the day; some merchants offered a reduction of 15-20 yuan / ton in early trading compared with last Friday, and some merchants.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Thread demand gradually rebounded and spot prices supported strongly at the bottom.
The previous period of crude oil rose nearly 1.3%, and international crude oil futures stabilized on Monday as hopes of a rebound in demand later this year helped contain last week's widespread sell-off, but oil prices are still under pressure as a new round of blockade in Europe reduces the likelihood of a rapid recovery. Last week, oil prices posted their worst weekly performance of the year, analysts said, amid heightened concerns about a surge in the number of new cases across Europe. And there are obvious signs of weakness in the physical market.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.2%, Shanghai silver fell nearly 1.2%, and Comex gold futures fell on Monday, the dollar fell, US bond yields offered little respite, and US stock markets rose, weakening the attractiveness of gold. Analysts point out that gold prices should have gone higher, but this is not the case. If normal correlations, such as a weaker dollar, cannot be maintained, it does show that the market is weak. " If dollar and bond yields rise, gold prices could fall further, he added.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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