SMM10 March 23: yesterday, most of the outer disk metal market was green, and Lun Copper fell back from the $7000 mark hit the previous day on Thursday, as the United States once again delayed reaching an agreement on the economic stimulus package. There were mixed ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:50 in the morning, Lunni fell nearly 0.2%, Lunxi Copper and Lunxue fell slightly, Lunxi was flat, Lunxi lead was up nearly 0.1%, and Lunzn Zinc was up nearly 0.2%. Domestically, shanghai tin fell nearly 0.9%, shanghai copper and shanghai nickel fell nearly 0.5%, shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.1%, and shanghai zinc and shanghai lead rose nearly 0.3%.
As for copper, the two parties in the United States still have big differences on the stimulus bill, which are still being resolved through negotiations. The number of new cases of the novel coronavirus epidemic is still accelerating. France has more than 40, 000 new cases in a single day, and the average daily death toll in the United States has reached its highest in January. The epidemic in many European countries has begun to rebound, and the economy is facing a new round of tests. At present, under the interference of uncertain factors such as the US election and the rebound of the epidemic, copper futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and when the dust of the general election settles, copper futures may usher in a new round of rise.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper prices remain volatile until the general election falls and copper may rise in a new round.
Aluminum, after entering the autumn and winter season, be on guard against the impact of a possible second outbreak of the epidemic on market trading sentiment. In addition, foreign countries pay attention to the US election process and the remarks and plans on economic development in Europe and the United States, while China pays attention to inventory changes in the fourth quarter, consumer feedback and actual new investment in supply-side production. The recent trend of aluminum prices has remained strong under low inventory. Concerned about the recent autumn and winter heating production limit policy, official documents have been released, only the carbon industry has partial production restrictions, alumina and electrolytic aluminum impact is not obvious, SMM will continue to follow up research.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] double declines in aluminum ingots and bars inventory are concerned about the change of contract positions in that month.
In terms of lead, overnight lead ended three consecutive positive and negative, expected short-term international lead price volatility trend. Shanghai lead fell slightly overnight, but still held the line of 14300 yuan / ton, fluctuating at the top, and is expected to maintain the trend of concussion in the short term. SMM1# lead prices are expected to be flat today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead concussion, lead concussion, regeneration, refined lead sticker maintenance
On the zinc side, overnight US jobless claims data were better than expected, boosting market sentiment, which was overshadowed by a stronger dollar and doubts about whether an economic stimulus package could be introduced before the presidential election. Pay attention to macro guidance in the short term. In terms of zinc in Shanghai, under the influence of the overseas epidemic, long-term concerns about overseas zinc mines have increased, domestic zinc prices are high, downstream consumption takes a wait-and-see attitude, transactions in the spot market are light, consumption support is slightly weakened, and zinc prices are expected to continue to be strong and volatile.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc prices continue to be strong and fluctuate downstream and the spot turnover is light.
In terms of nickel, overnight Shanghai nickel closed at the Yin Cross Star and fell within the 5 / 10 moving average range. Last night, the US dollar index continued to weaken, the next period of metal rally nickel is still tangled, and the pressure at the 120000 mark is strong. Close to the weekend, we are still concerned about the consolidation of Shanghai nickel today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the pressure at the Shanghai Nickel 120000 gate is strong and the supply continues to be tight and the spot transaction is still weak.
In terms of black series, thread and hot coil are up nearly 0.6%, stainless steel is up nearly 0.1%, coke is up nearly 0.9%, coking coal is up nearly 0.4%, iron ore is still in the middle of high-speed access to the reservoir area, and demand still has some support for spot fundamentals. in the case that production is more or less weakened by environmental production restrictions, rebar has not yet entered the formal downward channel, which is expected to be dominated by shock in the short term. However, according to SMM, the northeast region fully opened sub-zero weather in late November, North China and other northern regions officially began "heating" in mid-late November, and the seasonal weakening of demand is inevitable. In addition, on the basis of this year's high inventory, it is difficult to appear the "surge" market caused by the shortage of full specifications in November last year, and the "seasonal" weakening of prices in the later period is still inevitable.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Hot Volume falls to a considerable extent and the support at the bottom of the price gradually strengthens.
Crude oil fell nearly 0.2% in the previous period, while U.S. oil rose on Thursday, boosted by a possible stimulus package in the United States, but failed to fully recover the decline of the previous session. Oil prices fell sharply last day as rising US gasoline stocks hinted at a deterioration in the demand outlook as the number of novel coronavirus cases surged. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 1.9 million barrels last week, compared with an expected decline of 1.8 million barrels, the (EIA) said on Wednesday.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.7%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 1.7%. Comex gold futures fell 1% to nearly $1900 an ounce on Thursday as better-than-expected US jobs data, a stronger dollar and doubts about whether an economic stimulus package could be introduced before the US presidential election put further pressure on gold prices. Analysts pointed out that the number of initial jobless claims was much better than expected, and the improvement in the data to some extent reduced the urgency of reaching a stimulus package now.
As of 09:50, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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