SMM, September 24:Silicon metal:This week, silicon metal spot and futures prices stabilized and rebounded. As of September 24, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; #421 silicon was at 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt, flat WoW; and #3303 silicon was at 10,200-10,400 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW. In the futures market, the SI2611 contract stabilized and rebounded during the week, initially falling to around 8,410 yuan/mt before stabilizing. Mid-week, pre-holiday downstream restocking demand and cost support helped lift prices, with the contract closing at 8,530 yuan/mt on Thursday, up 85 yuan/mt WoW. In terms of market quotes and trading, with the two holidays approaching, downstream pre-holiday restocking and export demand increased, while higher freight costs pushed up spot-futures price spread quotes in Tianjin and east China. Some silicon suppliers raised quotes slightly WoW, silicon enterprises' sentiment to hold prices firm recovered from earlier levels, low-priced cargoes tightened WoW, trading activity picked up, and the price center stabilized and rebounded.
On the demand side, polysilicon operating rates were flat WoW this week. September polysilicon production is expected to be around 115,000-120,000 mt, and some polysilicon enterprises have production cut plans for October, with October polysilicon production expected to decline MoM. Silicone weekly operating rates rose slightly WoW, mainly due to production resumptions at some monomer plants. For September as a whole, operating rates at different monomer plants saw both increases and decreases, with total September silicone production seeing limited MoM change. Today, shipments and trading of silicone DMC, 107 silicone rubber, and other products were sluggish, and silicone plants mainly held prices stable ahead of the holiday. Aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises' operating rates were basically stable this week. The traditional September-October peak season brings expectations of marginal improvement in downstream demand, contributing mild growth to silicon metal demand.
Overall, silicon metal prices stabilized and rebounded this week, supported by pre-holiday downstream restocking demand, sustained cost support, and accelerating inventory drawdowns. In September, silicon metal's fundamentals maintained a tight supply pattern, and with cost support, downside price support remained solid. Pre-holiday risk-off sentiment in capital markets, combined with downstream pre-holiday stockpiling gradually winding down, left prices in a consolidation pattern. After the holiday, attention will focus on the pace of production cuts at southwest silicon enterprises during the dry season, the implementation of polysilicon production cuts, and capital flows in the futures market.
Polysilicon:This week, the polysilicon price index was 40.95 yuan/kg, with N-type recharging polysilicon quoted at 39.5-42.37 yuan/kg and granular polysilicon quoted at 39-40 yuan/kg. Market quotes edged up slightly this week, mainly due to the impact of earlier production cut meetings. Current market transactions remain relatively limited, with only a few high-priced deals concluded, while downstream buyers mostly opted for lower-priced offerings from traders. October polysilicon production is expected to decline MoM.
Wafer: Wafer prices remained broadly stable this week. N-type 183 wafers were priced at 0.994-1.002 yuan/piece, 210R wafers at 1.026-1.044 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers at 1.119-1.145 yuan/piece. Upstream polysilicon quotes showed limited overall fluctuations, and combined with market expectations of further production cuts, cost support expectations persist. After consecutive price declines in the earlier period, the marginal effect of further wafer price cuts in stimulating shipments has gradually weakened, and wafer enterprises have shifted their pricing stance from proactive concessions to holding prices firm while waiting. Meanwhile, pre-holiday downstream stocking demand provided some support to wafer prices, and the wafer market is expected to remain primarily stable in the short term.
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