【SMM Analysis】Steel Tender Price Falls, Market Expectations Weaken

Published: Sep 24, 2026 18:04 (GMT+8)

Ferrochrome Market

Price Review

Ferrochrome prices edged down this week. As of September 24, 2026, domestic high-carbon ferrochrome (HC FeCr) quotations stood at 7,250–7,900 RMB/50 metric ton unit in Inner Mongolia; 7,850–7,900 RMB/50 metric ton unit in Sichuan and Northwest China; and 8,100–8,200 RMB/50 metric ton unit in East China, down by 25 RMB week-on-week. Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 9,100–9,200 RMB/50 metric ton unit, a week-on-week drop of 50 RMB. Major steel mills released HC FeCr tender prices cut by 200 RMB week-on-week to 7,795 RMB/50 mt unit and 7,595 RMB/50 mt unit.

Demand Side

Downstream stainless steel market traded in a narrow range this week. The Fed rate hike was implemented, removing bearish factors; futures rebounded while spot prices adjusted slightly. Although the market entered the peak consumption season of "Golden September & Silver October", end-user demand remained sluggish. Steel mills rolled out multiple production reduction plans with low inventory restocking willingness, slowing inquiry and procurement activities for ferrochrome. Major stainless steel producers including Tsingshan and TIS announced October ferrochrome tender prices down 200 RMB/50 mt unit from the previous month. Price pressures passed upstream, dampening market participants’ confidence. Coupled with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, a wait-and-see sentiment prevailed, resulting in limited actual transactions.

Supply Side

Domestic ferrochrome output showed widening north-south divergence, yet overall production reduction remained limited. Falling tender prices and weaker procurement inquiries increased delivery pressure on ferrochrome smelters, with some plants facing losses. In southern regions such as Guangxi and Guizhou, several producers have launched maintenance and output cuts amid cost inversion. Inner Mongolia in the north saw shrinking profit margins, but most plants maintained stable production backed by long-term contract volumes, keeping overall output at a high level. Meanwhile, imported ferrochrome recovered, exacerbating supply surplus pressure. China Customs data showed China’s HC FeCr imports totalled 157,600 tonnes in August 2026, rising 18.66% month-on-month.

Cost Side

The sixth round of coke price hike has not been finalised. Spot and futures chrome ore prices started to decline, bringing a slight drop in ferrochrome production costs this week. The production cost of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was approximately 7,833–7,894 RMB/50 mt unit, down 1.26% week-on-week.

 

Chrome Ore Market

Price Review

As of September 24, 2026, Tianjin Port quotations: South African 40–42% chrome ore fines at 52.5–53 RMB/unit; Zimbabwean 48–50% chrome ore fines at 56–58 RMB/unit; Turkish 40–42% chrome ore lumpy ore at 70–71 RMB/unit, down 0.5–1.5 RMB/unit week-on-week. Overseas offers: South African 40–42% fines at USD 275/tonne, down USD 5 week-on-week; Zimbabwean 48–50% fines at USD 360–365/tonne, down USD 10 week-on-week; Turkish 40–42% lumpy ore at USD 335–350/tonne, down USD 2.5 week-on-week.

Supply Side

Port chrome ore inventories posted a slight drawdown from high levels, while the overall supply surplus pattern persisted. SMM data showed national port chrome ore stocks totalled 5.0369 million tonnes this week, down 2.79% week-on-week. By ore origin series: South African chrome fines remained abundant with weak demand support, prompting continuous cuts in major miners’ offers. Mainstream-series chrome ore spot resources stayed relatively tight; high shipping and transportation costs kept spot and futures prices resilient with limited declines.

Demand Side

Repeated falls in steel tender prices and cost inversion drove smelters to cut or halt production, lowering operating rates and weakening rigid chrome ore demand. Additionally, ferrochrome faced slow sales. Smelters adopted just-in-time purchasing with no proactive inventory build-up, further cooling ore inquiries and procurement. Only sporadic small-lot trades were concluded during the week, restraining sharp price swings.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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