[US Treasury yields break above 5% across the board, coupled with pre-holiday caution; the most-traded SHFE tin contract opens lower then stabilizes with sluggish trading [SMM Tin Midday Review]]

Tin Midday Review for September 24, 2026

1. Price Review

Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 410,600-412,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 411,700 yuan/mt, down slightly by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened lower at 408,190 yuan/mt in the night session, then its center rebounded and consolidated around 410,000. It closed at 411,440 yuan/mt in the morning, down 1,320 yuan/mt or 0.32% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Intraday open interest in the most-traded contract decreased by 4,182 lots, while the November contract added 2,639 lots. Some funds exited before the holiday, and both long and short participation willingness turned cautious.

On the LME, LME tin 3M was basically flat at $53,920/mt, down slightly by $40/mt or 0.07% from the previous trading day.

2. Spot Market

Spot market trading was mediocre today, with the market gradually entering holiday mode. Downstream pre-holiday stockpiling had already been largely completed earlier, and current purchases were mostly for rigid turnover around existing orders, with limited willingness to chase prices. Traders and smelters slowed their selling pace, and some suppliers focused on price locking and pre-sales before the holiday, resulting in limited actual transactions. As the holiday approaches, spot trading is expected to weaken further.

3. Comprehensive Outlook

Overnight macro pressure from outside China intensified significantly. The US September flash PMI far exceeded expectations—the composite PMI came in at 58.4, a five-year high, with new orders expanding at the fastest pace since April 2022, and the enterprise input cost index also moved higher. The strong data reignited tightening expectations, and US Treasuries were sold off sharply: the 5-year yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, the 10-year rose above 5.1% (a nearly 19-year high), and the 30-year hit its highest since 2004, while the US dollar index broke above 101. CME FedWatch showed the probability of an October rate hike rose to 69.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 bp hike by December reached 54.8%. The simultaneous strength in rates and the US dollar created new pressure on nonferrous metal valuations, and SHFE tin's lower open today was a direct reaction to this bearish factor.

Geopolitics saw renewed twists. Iran hardened its stance, saying it is willing to negotiate but will not accept coercion, and that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until conditions are met. Overnight Brent crude rose nearly 4% back above $100/bbl, ending a five-day losing streak. The oil price rebound further delayed the realization of the "inflation easing" narrative. Domestically, the China-US summit officially took place today, with the market focused on signals regarding tariffs, technology controls, and other agenda items. The progress of the meeting has become an important window for observing sentiment in China's industrial products recently.

In the short term, SHFE tin is at the intersection of intensifying macro pressure and pre-holiday wait-and-see sentiment. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate in the 406,000-418,000 yuan/mt range. After the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the direction will depend on the combination of news accumulated in overseas markets during the holiday: first, the trajectory of the Middle East situation and oil prices; second, whether US Treasury yields can stabilize at highs; and third, the realization of outcomes from the China-US summit. If positive news materializes, the price center may probe higher after the holiday, but with the National Day holiday approaching, cautious funds and the winding down of downstream stockpiling are expected to restrain the sustainability of any rise. If tightening trades and geopolitical disturbances persist, prices may test support below 410,000 yuan again.