The most-traded SHFE tin contract saw open interest decline for two consecutive days, with longs and shorts battling around the 410,000 mark [SMM Tin Morning News]

Social inventory at 9,846 mt, inventory buildup continues, moving sideways in the 415,000-420,000 range awaiting nonfarm payrolls guidance

[Futures] LME tin closed at $54,850/mt on September 4, down $50 or -0.09%, with the ratio of cancelled warrants staying high at 26.5% but inventory rising for consecutive days to 5,470 mt (+25 mt). The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract opened at 419,200, hit a high of 420,250, a low of 415,490, and closed at 416,460 (+1,160/+0.28%) in the daytime session on September 4, having shot up to 420,250 before pulling back to near the previous settlement; in the night session on September 4 (i.e., closing at 1:00 a.m. on September 5), it opened at 414,510, hit a high of 418,060, a low of 413,540, and closed at 417,440 (-820/-0.20%), with night session volume of 52,700 lots, turnover of 21.91 billion yuan, and open interest of 37,100 lots (down 1,810 lots cumulatively from 38,900 lots on September 3, or about -4.7%), with external volume of 27,100 lots > internal volume of 25,600 lots, and dense profit-taking traces of short covering + long liquidation + double liquidation appearing around 00:59, overall showing a "night session opened higher then bulls and bears tussled before pulling back" structure of long position reduction with a rebound.

[Macro] Fed Governor Waller sent a dovish signal on the evening of September 3, leaning toward supporting keeping rates unchanged in September; CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike fell from 60.4% to 50.4%, the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back from 4.780% to 4.761%, and the US dollar index closed at 99.12 (-0.43%) on September 4; Vance said the US-Iran war is over and geopolitical risks have not escalated further, with Brent crude oil closing at $95.85/barrel on September 4; attention is on tonight's US August nonfarm payrolls report for a second round of pricing on September rate hike expectations.

[Fundamentals] Supply side: Logistics in Wa State, Myanmar were restricted at the end of the rainy season, with tin concentrate imports from Myanmar in July at 4,569 mt in physical content (equivalent to 1,077 mt of metal, -27% MoM); Indonesia's Timah exported 2,483 mt of tin ingot to China in August, recovering to the expected range, with cumulative JFX+ICDX tin ingot volume at 25,830 mt in January-August (-18.17% YoY); Yinman Mining's beneficiation plant resumed production on September 3 but the timing for mining area work resumption remains pending; Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs at 18,000 yuan/mt (flat MoM) remained at historical lows. Demand side: The operating rate of solder enterprises in July was 72.8%, at a relatively low level for the same period in the past five years, with traditional consumer electronics suppressed by memory shortages, but demand for high-end solder used in AI servers and advanced packaging maintained resilience; SMM expects global tin demand for AI computing power to increase from 19,300 mt in 2026E to 41,100 mt in 2030E, a CAGR of 16%.

[Summary] LME inventory at 5,470 mt (+25 mt) with destocking slowing, coupled with the most-traded SHFE tin contract's open interest declining by a cumulative 1,810 lots (about -4.7%) over two consecutive days, fundamentals and futures are weakening in tandem; the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract is expected to remain in the 415,000-420,000 yuan/mt range today, with attention on whether the 415,000 support (previous settlement at 415,300) can hold.

[Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research decision advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM]