[Futures] LME tin 3M on 9/3 was tentatively quoted at $54,700/mt (+1.06%), opening at 54,210 / high 54,905 / low 54,175, previous close 54,125; LME tin inventory fell another 25 mt on 9/1 to 5,500 mt (a near three-year low). The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 416,090 yuan/mt (+0.07%) in the daytime session on 9/3, opening at 413,840 / high 417,950 / low 412,530 / volume 85,511 lots worth 35.495 billion yuan / open interest 39,734 lots, down 2,194 lots on the day (both longs and shorts liquidated); in the night session on 9/3, it closed at 412,910 yuan/mt (-0.70%, -2,910 yuan) as of 01:00 on 9/4, opening at 413,840 / high 415,500 / low 412,530 / volume 48,100 lots / open interest 42,400 lots, up 485 lots on the day (bears added positions defensively). The daytime session opened lower, hit bottom, then rallied and closed slightly higher in a narrow range; the night session opened lower and sold off, finding support at 412,500 (412,530) to close at 412,910, while the 415,800 level (previous settlement 415,820), which had flipped to a bullish position, was lost and turned into strong resistance.
[Macro] On 9/3, US August ADP private payrolls rose by only 38,000 (the lowest since January and below expectations), easing inflation concerns; the US dollar index pulled back to 99.56 (-0.27%), and the 10Y Treasury yield stood at 4.780% (-1.8bp). However, the CME FedWatch probability of a September rate hike still rose to 66.9%, as the market repriced ahead of the FOMC meeting on 9/15-16. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.14% on 9/2, weighing on tin prices; the US-Iran conflict did not escalate further (the US military carried out "reciprocal strikes" on Iranian oil tankers but did not expand the scope), and geopolitical premium was partially unwound.
[Fundamentals] Production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State have only recovered to 40-50% of pre-ban levels, and logistics at the mine end remain constrained at the end of the rainy season. In July, China's tin concentrate imports from Myanmar in metal equivalent terms totaled 1,077 mt, down 27% MoM; Indonesia's refined tin export quotas continued, and China imported 2,483 mt of Indonesian tin ingots in August. LME inventory at 5,500 mt has fallen to a near three-year low, while SHFE inventory stood at 6,381 mt (+363 mt) on 8/28, a slight inventory buildup. In July, China's refined tin production was 15,290 mt (-4.08% YoY), and the solder operating rate was 72.8%, low for the same period in the past five years. However, demand for high-end solder related to AI computing power, HBM, and advanced packaging remained resilient (SMM expects global tin demand for AI computing power to grow at a 16% CAGR from 2026 to 2030, and China's server tin consumption to grow at a 29% CAGR).
[Summary] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract is expected to consolidate in the 410,000-420,000 range today, with the 412,500 yuan/mt level remaining the key battleground between bulls and bears — a break below would open the door to the psychological 410,000 level, while stabilization would test resistance at 415,800 (previous settlement).
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a replacement for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM】
![Overnight SHFE tin rose 0.76% to stand above 418,000; September rate hike probability fell to 50.4% [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/JnZMp20251217171752.jpg)
