US Fed officials’ dovish signals and pre-nonfarm caution intertwine, SHFE tin continues to move sideways [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Commentary for September 4, 2026

1. Price Review

Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at yuan 417,500-419,700/mt, with an average price of yuan 418,600/mt, up yuan 1,850/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened higher today and then moved sideways in a narrow range. It hit an intraday high of yuan 420,250/mt and a low of yuan 416,880/mt, closing the morning at yuan 417,550/mt, up yuan 2,250/mt, or 0.54%, from the previous trading day's settlement price of yuan 415,300/mt.

On the LME, LME tin 3M pulled back slightly to $54,805/mt, down $95/mt, or 0.17%, from the previous trading day.

2. Spot Market

Trading in the spot market was subdued today. Tin prices rebounded slightly, and downstream buying interest was limited, with transactions mostly small orders for rigid demand. Smelters and traders reported that overall trading activity was weaker than in the previous two days, and the market was largely in a wait-and-see mode ahead of tonight's non-farm payrolls data and next week's macro events. Downstream restocking from earlier is still being digested, and the pace of end-use order releases has not visibly accelerated, with purchasing as needed remaining the mainstream approach.

3. Comprehensive Outlook

In terms of price fluctuations, Fed Governor Waller struck a dovish tone overnight, saying he would support holding rates steady in September if August inflation data supports easing pressure. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25 bp rate hike in September pulled back from 60.4% to 50.4%, the 10-year US Treasury yield pulled back from 4.780% to 4.761%, and the three major US stock indices closed up 1.1%-1.4% in the night session. However, the market overall remained cautious. The macro environment is currently in a critical data window. Tonight (Friday), the US August non-farm payrolls report will be released, and the policy path remains uncertain ahead of the Fed's September 15-16 meeting. Meanwhile, the Middle East situation and oil price fluctuations continue to disrupt global risk appetite. Crude oil held above $91/bbl, and Brent hovered near $95. The impact of changes in the US dollar and energy prices on the global economic environment is still difficult to assess. Today, LME tin pulled back slightly while SHFE tin remained independently strong, reflecting that the market's trading of domestic policy and external marginal easing is not consistent, and a one-sided driver is not yet clear.

On the fundamentals side, production resumptions in Wa State, Myanmar, remain small in scale, and Indonesia's refined tin shipment pace has fallen short of expectations, so supply-side support persists. End-use demand is still in the transition from the off-season to the traditional peak season, and concentrated volume has not yet emerged.

In the short term, tin prices are expected to maintain a range-bound pattern with resistance above and support below. On the upside, prices are capped by Fed tightening expectations, Middle East geopolitical risks, and weak end-use demand, limiting the height of rebounds. On the downside, support comes from supply disruptions in Myanmar/Indonesia, the absence of significant accumulation in China's social inventory, and rigid demand buying near yuan 400,000-410,000/mt. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment after tonight's data release. If all parties remain relatively neutral, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue trading in the yuan 413,000-425,000/mt range next week. A directional breakout will require further guidance from tonight's US August non-farm payrolls report, the US August CPI data on September 11, and the Fed's September 15-16 meeting, as well as a substantial pickup in end-use peak-season orders.