SHFE tin closed up 0.28% in the night session, continuing to move sideways in the 413,000-420,000 range [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SHFE tin closed up 0.28% at 416,460, with the night session giving back gains to 417,440. LME tin closed slightly lower at $54,850/mt. Social inventory rose for a third straight day to 9,846 mt. Prices moved sideways in the 413,000-420,000 range.

FuturesOn Sep 4, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract opened at 419,200, hit a high of 420,250 and a low of 415,490, versus the prior settlement of 415,300, and closed at 416,460, up 1,160 yuan or 0.28%. Open interest was 37,600 lots (down 1,300 lots on the day) on volume of 99,500 lots. In the overnight session (closing at 01:00 on Sep 5), the contract opened at 414,510 and closed at 417,440, down 0.20%, giving back part of the daytime gains. On the LME, 3M tin closed at $54,850/mt on Sep 4, down $50 or 0.09%.

InventoryLME tin inventory stood at 5,470 mt on Sep 4 (up 25 mt from 5,445 mt on Sep 3), with cancelled warrants at 1,450 mt.The cancelled warrant ratio rose to 26.51% (from 20.84% on Sep 3), a new stage high, with nearly 30% of warrants pending withdrawal. SHFE tin warrants stood at 4,657 mt on Sep 4 (down 8 mt from Sep 3). This week (Aug 30-Sep 4), SHFE weekly tin inventory was 6,499 mt (+118 mt, +1.85%).

MacroUS August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 (well above the expected 56,000), while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. June and July data were revised up by a combined 55,000. August average hourly earnings rose 3.1% YoY and 0.3% MoM, and the labor force participation rate rebounded to 61.6%. After the data, CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike rose to 58.4% from 49.4%, while the 10Y Treasury yield pulled back to 4.761% from 4.780%. Earlier, on Sep 3, Fed Governor Waller sent dovish signals, leaning toward no September hike if August inflation supports it. WTI crude held above $91/bbl, with Brent around $95. Key dates: US August CPI on Sep 11, and the FOMC meeting on Sep 15-16.

Fundamentals

• Mine side: Wa State in Myanmar remains in the late rainy season, with mining and logistics still constrained, making it difficult for tin concentrate imports to rise significantly. In the DRC, one new Ebola case was reported in the M23-controlled area on Sep 3, bringing cumulative totals to 6,342 confirmed cases and 3,072 deaths (as of Sep 2), with Ituri province still the main hotspot. Peru exported 1,900 mt of tin in June.
• Smelting side: Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs were 18,000 yuan/mt. Yunnan operating rates were above 90%, while Jiangxi held steady at low levels. Net exports were 524 mt (imports 2,269 / exports 1,745, including 1,763.7 mt of Indonesian tolling material). Refined tin import profit margin was +2,310.83 yuan/mt.
• Demand: Solder operating rate at 72.8% (low relative to the same period over the past five years), downstream July orders fell short of June, with demand weakening seasonally; tin use in AI computing power is expected to grow from 19,300 mt in 2026 to 41,100 mt in 2030 (16% CAGR), and tin consumption in China servers is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 29% from 2026 to 2030.

VI. Spot MarketOn 9/4, SHFE tin opened higher in early trading and pulled back during the day, with gains narrowing to 0.28%: hard constraints on imported ore supply ran alongside a slight buildup in China social inventory, strength in overseas tech stocks brought back some support for computing-power metals, and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in September benefited risk appetite, but July downstream orders weakened seasonally and fear of high prices persisted, with just-in-time procurement dominating throughout the month. Key judgment: SHFE tin is expected to consolidate in the 413,000-425,000 range this week, with attention on whether the key support at 410,000 can hold; ahead of the dual events of the 9/11 CPI and the 9/15-16 FOMC, the probability of a structural directional breakout is low, and short-term trading should focus primarily on intraday swings.