China Ternary cathode precursor output in October and forecast for November

In October, China's production of ternary cathode precursor was approximately 73259 mt, down 2% MoM and 20% YoY. The cumulative production from January to October was 676136 mt, down 1.7% YoY.

Some ternary cathode precursor enterprises experienced a significant decline in export volume due to large inventory of overseas downstream cathode and battery cell factories, resulting in poor market demand. Some enterprises saw a reduction of over 50% in demand for specific model of products. In the domestic market, benefiting from the good sales of specific downstream EV models, there is a certain increase in demand for medium and low nickel in both battery and cathode factories, and some enterprises increased domestic sales. In addition, there was a slight increase in the digital market in October, with some manufacturers' low-price strategies working and production increasing, leading to an increase in market share.

Entering November, there has been some differentiation in overseas cathodes demand, and overall export orders are still declining. However, some manufacturers have stepped up production due to growing export orders for high-nickel precursors. In the domestic market, the overall production schedules are generally stable. Although there is still an increase in market demand, as the end of the year is approaching, and lithium prices are still continuing to decline, cathodes factories have stricter inventory control, and their willingness to hold down precursor prices has further increased. As such, there may be delays in delivery and difficulties in fulfilling demand. In November, China's production of ternary cathode precursor is projected at 72634 mt, down 1% MoM and 19% YoY.