In November, the international gold price once again reaped the "four Lianyang", with a high of 1830 US dollars per ounce setting a new high in nearly two months. With the gathering of the long atmosphere, many brokerage researchers and fund managers have joined the ranks of "bulls".
"Gold has been in a pullback for more than a year since it peaked in early August last year. Standing at the moment, we think the gold bullish window is open again." Two days ago, I made a point in a report entitled "three reasons to be bullish on Gold" by the Ding Luming Financial Engineering Research team of the Research and Development Department of CITIC Construction and Investment Co., Ltd.
In Ding Luming's view, the taper boots have landed and the global central banks have released the pigeons one after another, the biggest crackdown on gold has been lifted, coupled with the acceleration of the global economic downturn next year, while inflation will remain high, and the opportunity for the medium-term level of gold is not far away!
Two fund managers of Boshi Fund and Cathay Pacific Fund have also joined the "long camp" of gold. They believe that gold assets are back above $1800, the short-term technical direction is positive, and judge that "gold is expected to usher in a phased upside window."
The report, entitled "three reasons to be bullish on Gold", was first published on the official account "Luming Quantification full Perspective", which is owned by the financial engineering research team of CITIC Construction Investment Research and Development Department. In the report, the views of Ding Luming and Chen Yunyang are very clear.
They have three reasons to be bullish on gold: next year, the global economic downturn will accelerate, while inflation will remain high; Taper boots have landed and global central banks have released pigeons one after another, lifting the maximum clampdown on gold; and the opportunity for the medium-term level of gold is not far away, so it is recommended to observe changes in the US bond yield curve.
Global manufacturing PMI fell slightly from 56 in May 2021 to 54.3 in October 2021, and the global economy is expected to continue to decline in 2022 as the global credit cycle peaked and fell and China's economy fell rapidly.
According to historical experience, the Phillips curve in the late cycle of the economy will wake up and inflationary pressures will continue. As a result, the economic downturn will accelerate and inflation will remain relatively high next year, and the fundamentals facing gold will be in a relatively friendly environment. " Ding Luming and Chen Yunyang said.
In the view of two analysts, the global economy was in a state of quasi-stagflation in the third quarter of this year, but gold did not perform, the core reason was the suppression of Fed tightening expectations. In the past two months, gold has stood the test of taper expectations and a second rate hike expected in 2022.
However, with the landing of taper in November and the decline in expectations of interest rate increases by central banks in the United States, Europe, the United Kingdom and Australia, the biggest bearish pressure on gold has been lifted. According to the historical characteristics of gold buying expectations and selling facts, it is expected that the rising space of gold price has been opened.
The Fed has lagged significantly behind the curve, and short-end interest rates are easier to go up than down, while the second wave of economic decline next year lowers long-end interest rates, flattening the yield curve, and there may be signs of a yield curve upside down in the first half of next year.
"historically, when the yield curve is upside down, there tends to be a gold mid-term buy point." According to the report, and citing the following case-part of the yield curve began to hang upside down at the end of 2018, the Fed fully turned to pigeon in 2019, and gold rose 18%.
After well-known brokerages issued a "bullish article" on the trend of gold, on November 9, two fund managers of public funds also issued a bullish view one after another, formally joining the "multi-camp"-one is Wang Xiang of Boshi Fund and the other is Xie Dongxu of Cathay Pacific Fund.
At 4: 00 p.m. on November 9, Wang Xiang, manager of Boshi Gold ETF Fund, released in the "Boshi Investment Exchange" that "gold assets have rebounded after the landing of TAPER." He believes that the pressure on gold assets has weakened and the short-term technical direction has turned positive.
In Wang Xiang's view, last week's volatility in the gold market was accompanied by an increase in the release of heavyweight economic data such as the Federal Reserve's TAPER official announcement and non-farm data. After the Fed finally announced that it had curtailed its bond purchases, short-term US bond yields fell after landing, boosting the performance of gold assets.
International gold prices rose 1.94% this week, the best performance since the end of August, with a weekly amplitude of more than $60. To investigate the reason, Wang Xiang believes that the Fed announced that it would reduce the amount of unlimited QE purchases it has implemented since the outbreak last year, which is in line with the guidelines given in the minutes of the September meeting.
However, Wang Xiang remains cautious about the Shanghai market space for the current round of gold prices. He believes that there is a high probability that issues such as the follow-up "rebuilding the good" bill and the debt limit will be properly resolved, and the dollar index may remain strong this year, which will constitute a certain degree of repression on gold.
"some investor friends asked me the reasons for the rise in the non-ferrous sector. Today, let's analyze it together." At 5 p.m. on November 9, Xie Dongxu, fund manager of Cathay Pacific Fund, said in a post in the stock community that the United States, Britain and Europe were cautious in raising interest rates and gold and silver prices rebounded.
With the Fed meeting, the debt retrenchment boots have fallen to the ground. "overall, central banks are cautious about monetary tightening, US bond yields have fallen rapidly, providing strong support for precious metals, short-term downward pressure on precious metals has slowed, and gold and silver prices have rebounded." He said.
Looking forward to the future, Xie Dongxu believes that the Taper meeting will effectively repair the market's extreme evolution expectations of the Fed's subsequent rate hikes. In the short term, gold is expected to usher in a phased upward window, long-term need to pay attention to the pace of subsequent global interest rate increases, inflation levels and global economic trends.
