SMM7 March 20: most of the outer disk metal market fell yesterday, with Lun Copper falling to a four-week low on Monday, as sentiment was affected by a stronger dollar, concerns about demand in China, a major consumer country, and China's plan to release copper and other industrial metals from its reserves. Today, most of the LME metal market is red. As of 09:30, Lun Copper and Lun Aluminum are up nearly 0.4%, Lun lead is down nearly 0.2%, Lun Zinc and Lun Ni are up nearly 0.2%, Lunxi is flat, domestic non-ferrous metals are collectively green, international copper and Shanghai aluminum are down nearly 2%, Shanghai Copper and Shanghai lead are down nearly 1.6%, Shanghai zinc is down nearly 0.2%, Shanghai Nickel is down nearly 3.3%, and Shanghai tin is down nearly 2%.
With regard to copper, the National Development and Reform Commission said yesterday that it would continue to work with relevant departments to strengthen commodity price monitoring and forecast and organize subsequent batches of national reserves such as copper, aluminum and zinc. The release of copper reserves was put on the agenda again, and the pressure of copper fell at night. At the same time, after the OPEC+ Alliance agreed to increase crude oil supply, as the resurgence of the epidemic shaken investors' confidence in the global economic recovery and triggered concerns about oil oversupply, US oil and cloth oil respectively refreshed their lows since late May, which was also bad for copper prices. On the spot side.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] during the period of risk aversion, the center of gravity of copper moved downwards, the spot rising water was high and difficult.
In terms of aluminum, from a macro point of view, the overnight dollar index hit a new high since April, with non-ferrous metals under collective pressure. Fundamentally, current aluminum consumption shows signs of weakening, but aluminum ingot inventory is still in the destocking cycle. Social inventory of aluminum ingots fell slightly by 3000 tons to 829000 tons on Monday compared with last Thursday, and the narrowing of the decline will put some pressure on aluminum prices. It needs to continue.
[summary of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] the news of dumping and stockpiling renewed the strengthening of the US dollar and the sharp drop in aluminum pressure overnight.
In terms of lead, overnight, the dollar index rose slightly in Europe and then continued to rise slightly, LME non-ferrous metals collectively declined, and Lun lead also fell below the first-line support level of 2300 US dollars / ton in this atmosphere. However, LME lead stocks continue to go to the warehouse, and the strong overseas lead consumption has not changed. Overnight, Shanghai lead all the way down weaker, short positions into the market, under a number of moving averages, out of the negative column. The news of power cuts in Yunnan and Henan is more profitable, while the inventory of lead ingots continues to accumulate, making lead prices under upward pressure, and short-term lead prices will be shaken back. Lead is expected to be in stock today.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] the news of lead pressure drop and power limit during the overnight period is more favorable than the upward pressure of lead price.
Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a long shadow positive column, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form a pressure, the lower moving average to provide support. Yesterday, the NDRC said it would organize subsequent batches of national reserves such as copper, aluminum and zinc, and pay close attention to abnormal market price fluctuations, dealing a blow to market bulls' confidence. Pay attention to the release of actual reserves in the short term.
"[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] the second batch of information thrown and stored came to Shanghai to suspend the rise of zinc.
In terms of black series, threads fell nearly 1.9%, hot coil fell nearly 2.3%, coking coal rose nearly 0.3%, coke rose slightly, iron ore fell nearly 0.9%, stainless steel fell nearly 3.1%. In terms of coke, Shanxi coke market was weak yesterday. A few regional coke enterprises limit production due to policy or inventory reasons, most coke enterprises maintain full capacity production, and coke supply continues to be loose. Crude steel production reduction is expected to fluctuate. Anhui, Gansu and other places require annual output not to exceed 2020. Under the influence of pressure production policy, the recovery pace of hot metal output has been affected, but steel profits have been repaired, and there is no national production limit. Steel mills began to reduce coke inventory, demand expectations are weak.
[minutes of SMM Iron and Steel Morning meeting] Raw material is weak, black high concussion, beware of policy intervention.
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 5.3%, and international oil prices fell sharply on Monday, the biggest drop since March. Earlier, when the novel coronavirus epidemic once again threatened demand, OPEC reached an agreement to increase production, raising concerns about an oil glut. It is not clear how this variant of the virus will affect oil demand. Consumption in the United States, the world's largest fuel consumer, has risen steadily in recent weeks, but India, the third-largest importer, has cut imports because of oversupply and concerns about reduced demand.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.2%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 1.9%. International gold futures prices fell for the second day in a row on Monday amid a strengthening dollar and a massive sell-off in global stock markets. One of the reasons for the strengthening of the dollar and the decline in the stock market is that the rapid spread of the new crown delta variant has once again raised market concerns.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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"[SMM Metal Morning ginseng] Nickel fell by more than 3% * crude oil fell by more than 6% * the price of rare earths fermented by multiple factors strengthened.
