SMM4 March 8: yesterday, the outer disk metal rose and fell each other, Lun copper fell back to the 9000 mark, Lun Zinc lun lead rose slightly. SMM believes that in April, the lead market presents a weak situation of supply and demand, lead price volatility is weak, strategic short-term recommendations to sell high and low suction, long-term bargain, waiting for the follow-up (third quarter) peak season to stimulate price elasticity. The dollar index rebounded slightly, and despite strong economic growth this year, Fed officials remained cautious about the continuing risks of the epidemic and promised to continue to provide monetary policy support until the recovery became more solid, according to minutes of the Fed's March meeting. LME metals had their ups and downs in early trading. As of 09:20 in the morning, Lun Copper rose slightly, Lun Aluminum was flat, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Nickel rose nearly 0.4%, Lun Xi was flat, Lun lead fell nearly 0.3%. On the domestic side, international copper and Shanghai copper fell nearly 0.8%, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.3%, and Shanghai tin fell nearly 1.1%.
On the copper side, on the macro front, Fed officials remain cautious about the continuing risks of the epidemic despite strong economic growth this year, and promised to continue to provide monetary policy support until the recovery becomes more solid, according to the minutes of the Fed meeting in March. The Fed is in no hurry to withdraw from its bond-buying program, and market sentiment has made the dollar.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper fell back in and out of trading overnight to focus on today's spot performance.
In terms of aluminum, on the supply side, first of all, imported aluminum ingots continue to be replenished, and secondly, Xinjiang railway freight rates fluctuate seasonally or stimulate shipping volume, which will give arrival pressure; rigid demand on the demand side still exists, but high aluminum prices may still restrain downstream reserves, comprehensively speaking, the tight balance pattern of the post-holiday market continues, giving aluminum prices a certain support, but the market is still looking for new game contradictions. The main force of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate mainly in the week after the festival, and the spot pair will run near the small discount in the current month.
[summary of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] the purchase intensity of 100000 tons of the third section of Baikuang Debao in the lower reaches of Guangdong has rebounded compared with that at the beginning of the week.
In terms of lead, overnight, Lun lead encountered many positions to grow the positive pillar of the shadow line, in the near future, we still need to pay attention to the impact of the overseas epidemic on the market, and during the day, we should pay attention to whether Lun lead can continue to rise and stabilize its 5-day moving average. The short positions of lead in Shanghai recorded Xiaoyang pillar overnight. Recently, environmental protection has revived in various places, superimposed profits have narrowed, the incremental release or storage pressure of recycled lead, and the bottom support of lead price is more obvious. during the day, we still need to pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can stop falling and stabilize and stand firm at the front line of 14900 yuan / ton. It is expected that today's spot lead is better than yesterday's.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] lead rose slightly overnight, regenerated lead discount narrowed slightly.
Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded four Lianyang, the bottom of each short moving average to provide support, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form a suppression. According to SMM research, affected by the "double control of energy consumption" in Inner Mongolia, the recovery of domestic refined zinc supply in March was less than expected, and the mine supply was still tight, and the supply side paid close attention to the support of zinc price in the short term.
[summary of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] the processing fee of the Association is lower than expected zinc price or high shock.
In terms of black series, the thread fell by nearly 0.6%, the hot coil fell by nearly 1.7%, coking coal by nearly 0.8%, coke by nearly 0.2%, iron ore by nearly 0.6%, stainless steel by nearly 0.1%, iron ore arriving in Hong Kong rebounded slightly this period, but the month-on-month decreases in Australia and Brazil were more significant. Superimposed demand from domestic steel mills driven by improved profits, steel mills have a good demand for mainstream medium-and high-grade ore, and have a strong support for iron ore prices. According to SMM research, as of April 7, the operating rate of 34 independent EAF steel mills with main building materials in the country was 85.76%. It rebounded 1.67 percentage points from last week, compared with the same period last month.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] better demand iron ore prices have strong support the operating rate of electric arc furnace steel mills has rebounded month-on-month.
Crude oil fell nearly 1 per cent in the previous period, while international crude oil futures rose slightly on Wednesday, driven by an improved global economic outlook, but limited by rising gasoline inventories and fears that the novel coronavirus epidemic would undermine the recovery in global fuel demand. Us crude oil inventories fell by 3.5 million barrels to 498.312 million barrels in the week ended April 2, compared with market expectations of a decline of 1.4 million barrels, according to the data. Crude oil inventories in the Midwest fell by 1.2 million barrels to their lowest level since March 2020.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.3%, Shanghai silver fell nearly 0.7%, and international gold prices fell on Wednesday, as strong US economic data boosted hopes of a rapid economic recovery and undermined gold's attractiveness. Despite strong economic growth this year, Fed officials remained cautious about the continuing risks of the outbreak and promised to continue to provide monetary policy support until the recovery became more solid, according to minutes of the Fed's March meeting.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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