SMM: November 24, the domestic precious metal plate plummeted, gold and silver futures fell further than the night market. As of the close, Shanghai gold futures AU2012 main contract was 383.32 yuan / g, down 2.39%, Shanghai silver futures AG2012 main contract was 4899 yuan / kg, down 3.68%.
The main reason for the sharp fall in precious metals is the style switch between market risk and investment preference. After the recent positive progress of multiple vaccines and the basic settlement of the election results, optimistic expectations of the market for economic recovery are high, superimposed by the faster-than-expected recovery of US economic data, so that gold and silver, which are regarded as safe havens, have fallen sharply. Data show that the strength of US Markit PMI in November significantly exceeded market expectations, with PMI in the service sector rebounding to 57.7, a 68-month high, while PMI in US manufacturing rebounded to 56.7, a 74-month high, and the employment sub-index hit a record high, showing optimistic signs of a positive recovery in US economic activity and stronger terminal demand. Strong data suppressed a sharp fall in overseas precious metals. Overnight COMEX gold fell below $1830 and COMEX silver fell below $23.50, the lowest level in nearly four months.
Judging from the short-term trend of precious metals, the precious metals market will usher in more data and policy guidance this week. The collapse brought about by the strong US PMI data may be suspected of being optimistic about the overdraft economy, and the precious metals are less likely to plunge further in the short term. In addition, the situation of the rebound in the epidemic in the United States is grim, with the number of new confirmed cases reaching a new high in a single day, reaching a maximum of close to 200000. Many states have adopted stricter epidemic prevention measures. The impact of the rebound in overseas epidemics on the real economy is reflected in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits, retail sales data, and consumer confidence index. In the short term, you can pay attention to the October PCE price index to be released on Wednesday night. there is a high probability that the performance of inflation will be low. In addition, in the early hours of Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its November interest rate meeting, which is expected to send a pessimistic signal. Powell stressed at a news conference at the November interest rate meeting that he may adjust his asset purchase plan upwards, and believes that the US economy will still face challenges in the coming months. The market expects that the Fed monetary policy easing will continue, and the economy is still in a slow recovery stage, and it will take a long time for the vaccine to be rolled out to achieve full coverage. before that, the pressure on the real economy can hardly be reversed in the short term, and market capital investment preference for precious metals is likely to wobble again and again.
It should be noted that as the process of economic recovery advances, the market style has changed, the recent gold ETF position has dropped significantly, more funds have turned to invest in other re-inflationary pro-cyclical assets, the heat of investment in the precious metal market has declined, and the factors supporting the rise in precious metal prices have been weakened. Without more additional bullish factors (such as a sharp rebound in inflation, the Fed's practical yield curve to control lower real interest rates, etc.) before the end of the year, gold lacks the momentum to rebound sharply, but looks forward to the medium-and long-term precious metal price trend, it needs to be further collated and adjusted, and the high probability is dominated by wide shocks. In November, with the vaccine research and development, the United States election and other risk factors gradually settled, the market risk aversion sentiment has dropped significantly compared with the previous period. In the medium to long term, the trend performance of precious metals still needs to focus on the important guidance of the Fed's December meeting, with particular attention to the Fed's position on yield curve control and inflation tolerance, which may provide further tone for precious metals prices. if the marginal easing of the Fed's monetary policy weakens, the optimistic progress of the vaccine will reduce the size of fiscal stimulus and weaken the room for rebound above the precious metals market.
Operational recommendations: wide concussion pattern under the short-term band, medium-and long-term focus on December Fed meeting more guidance, silver fluctuations are fierce and repeated, it is recommended to see more, move less carefully, and pay attention to the control of positions.
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