SMM: the progress of bipartisan negotiations on a new round of stimulus bills in the United States has been slow, with analysts calling the White House negotiations just a "show." on Monday, local time, a White House spokesman admitted that the stimulus bill could not be reached until the general election, and Trump put the blame on Pelosi, saying he did not approve the stimulus bill.
This trading day, spot gold opened at US $1901.74 / oz, reaching as high as US $1908.52 / oz and as low as US $1902.51 / oz. As of press time, it was tentatively reported at US $1906.14 / oz, down 0.09 per cent.
Spot gold rose yesterday, but the increase was limited, and gold prices fell back slightly at the beginning of the Asian session this trading day. In the run-up to the US election, the market is in a wait-and-see state, and the price volatility trend of spot gold is expected to continue. Analysts point out that once the gold price falls below $1901, it may be tempted to a deeper level.
A quick overview of the market
[foreign exchange] the dollar index was basically stable on Tuesday, falling 0.03% to 93.03. The yen was boosted by safe-haven demand, which traders said was because leveraged funds were less willing to build new spot positions, while demand for betting on volatility rose before the election.
[precious metals] boosted by the continued weakness of the dollar, precious metals rose and gold prices rose slightly, as data showed a decline in US consumer confidence in the labor market and economic outlook, boosting safe-haven investment demand for gold. COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.3% at $1911.90 an ounce.
[stock market] the three major indexes of US stocks closed mixed. The S & P 500 closed down 10.30 points, or 0.30%, at 3390.69; the NASDAQ closed up 72.40 points, or 0.64%, at 11431.35; and the Dow Jones index closed down 222.20 points, or 0.80%, at 27463.19.
[oil market] US oil rose more than 3 per cent to $39.83 a barrel at one point yesterday, boosted by a weak dollar and storm shocks, but API data showed crude oil inventories rose much faster than expected last week and narrowed to less than 1 per cent in late trading. WTI December crude oil futures closed up 1.01 U.S. dollars, or 2.62 percent, at 39.57 U.S. dollars per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures closed up 74 cents, or 1.83 percent, at 41.20 U.S. dollars per barrel.
Fundamental concern
[the White House gives up hope of launching a stimulus package before the election]
The US general election is less than a week away, but there has been no progress in bipartisan negotiations on the bailout bill, with analysts calling the bipartisan negotiations a "show" and there is no possibility of reaching an agreement before the election.
On Tuesday, the White House seemed to finally accept the view of most observers that there would be no anti-epidemic stimulus package before the election. Trump and his aides put the blame on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Trump said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not approve the stimulus package, and when the election is over, we will have the best stimulus package in history.
White House spokeswoman Fareh said recently that the White House hopes to reach an agreement with Democrats on the coronavirus rescue bill and be able to vote "within a few weeks", but she said such a deal would not be possible until after election day. Trump said recently that Americans deserve a stimulus package, but Pelosi rejected the novel coronavirus bailout bill.
Trump said he would provide the best stimulus package ever after the election, and Trump said a stimulus deal could be reached after the election. At present, the US stimulus package has been delayed, coupled with the crazy counterattack of the novel coronavirus epidemic, the US election has entered the final week of the countdown, market sentiment remains cautious.
[many states in the United States say there is insufficient funding for vaccine distribution.]
An analysis of Johns Hopkins University data by NBC financial channel (CNBC) shows that the number of coronavirus cases in the United States has increased by an average of 69967 a day in the past week, an all-time high. According to novel coronavirus's tracking program, the average number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in 36 states has also increased by at least 5 per cent in the past seven days.
Pfizer said within days that its large-scale post-trial of novel coronavirus vaccine had not yet reached the level to which the immune effect could be analyzed. The drugmaker's third-quarter performance presentation showed that the data monitoring committee, which oversees the progress of the trial, had not yet conducted an interim analysis of the effectiveness of the vaccine. This means that there are fewer than 32 cases of novel coronavirus infection among the subjects. The company will conduct four effectiveness analyses in vaccine trials, with the threshold for the first analysis reaching 32 cases. However, Pfizer CEO pointed out that it is believed that the validity analysis of novel coronavirus vaccine phase 3 data will begin soon. At the same time, under a contract with the government, Pfizer must supply vaccines to the United States by March next year.
On October 27, local time, as the development of the coronavirus vaccine was nearing its final stage, public health authorities across the United States were preparing to deploy programs and processes for vaccine distribution. Many public health representatives say that what is urgent but uncertain is the issue of funding for vaccine distribution, as funding from the federal government is not sufficient to support vaccine distribution.
[France will impose a second blockade]
French President Jean-Claude Macron and French Prime Minister Jean Castel will hold two defense meetings for two days in a row to discuss with various departments how to combat the peak of the epidemic, including the possibility of a second city closure on Thursday. If confirmed, the time is expected to last a month, but it will be looser than the rules from March to May.
It was previously reported that the French government is trying to ensure that the new restrictions do not cause too much damage to the economy and to find a balance in all areas to fight the virus.
French government spokesman Gabriel Attal said after the first defense conference on Tuesday local time: "in the face of the outbreak, future measures taken by the government will include the expansion of curfews and regional or national closures."
According to data released by the French Public Health Agency on the evening of the 27th, as of 14:00 that day, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in France had increased by 33417 in 24 hours, with a total of 1198695 confirmed cases. The French government plans to impose a month-long national blockade from midnight on Thursday to combat the novel coronavirus pandemic, and the new measures are likely to be more flexible than the strict ban in March.
Spot gold in the future
Analysts warn that investors are clearly cautious after the number of COVID-19 infections in the United States, Russia and France all set new records. Prices have not fluctuated much, they say, because investors are reluctant to build positions before the November 3 election.
BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, is shorting the dollar in the expectation that unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus will prolong the dollar's downward trend no matter who wins the US election. This means that gold prices will be supported for a longer period of time.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said investors were on the sidelines before the election. As for the election result, although Biden is ahead in the polls, it is still hard to say what the final result will be.
David Govett, founder of Govett Precious Metals, said that there will be profit-taking by investors in the gold market before the election. "the whole market is still very strong, especially in terms of ETF and so on, investors will want to lock in some gains, especially in the recent volatile state. However, I am still bullish on gold and wait for investors to take profits and look for bargain-hunting opportunities.
