[SMM Weekly report selected] Aluminum price for four consecutive weeks center of gravity floating short-term upward space is limited

"SMM aluminum industry chain weekly report" released, the weekly report SMM will select one of the hot topics, prices, market or major changes in the industry chain information released into a document for your reference.

The following is an excerpt from the weekly report of SMM aluminum industry chain:

This week Shanghai aluminum main 2007 contract concussion uplink, break through above ten thousand three resistance level to explore high 13020 yuan / ton, refresh more than two months new high, continue to uplink performance is weak, then the high level fell back, give up more than half of the previous day's increase, the overall operation in 12520 color 13020 yuan / ton, so far the K line for four consecutive weeks the center of gravity has floated. Lun Aluminum rose significantly this week, with a high breaking through the $1500 / ton mark above the $1524.5 / ton level and hitting a new one-month high of $1460 / M / t, running between $1,525 / ton.

As far as Shanghai Aluminum is concerned, under the background of a warmer macro atmosphere, the overall fundamentals have not changed this week. Inventory side, SMM statistics on Thursday, the country's mainstream consumer aluminum inventory month-on-month decline of nearly 80,000 tons, inventory fell to less than one million tons, basically flat at the level of early February, strong removal of storage for aluminum prices to provide counter-thrust, consumer side, downstream aluminum profiles and aluminum foil plate consumption is still good this week, the overall stability of consumption makes aluminum prices strong. In terms of next week, first of all, key consumer sectors such as aluminum strip begin to weaken, recycled aluminum and aluminum cables are expected to have a limited increase in subsequent orders, and the long-term overall consumption weakening probability increases. Second, with the recovery of aluminum prices and the repair of aluminum plant profits, the original reduced production capacity of smelters has gradually recovered, new production capacity in places such as Yunnan and Sichuan has also begun to be put into operation on schedule, and the continuous influx of imported aluminum ingots will put pressure on aluminum prices from the supply side together. It is expected that the decline in social electrolytic aluminum inventory will further narrow next week.

Taken together, the main aluminum prices continue to rise next week is limited, 13000 Mel 13200 yuan / ton space still has greater resistance, next week or run between 12500 MUR 13100 yuan / ton. On the rising water, the rising water this week has shrunk from 260 yuan / ton before the change of month to 80 yuan / ton on Friday. Considering the spot circulation and in and out of the warehouse, it is expected that the rising water will be concentrated in the range of 40 million yuan / ton next week. As for Lun Aluminum, due to the improvement in macro sentiment and the continued rise in the Shanghai-Lun ratio this week, the marginal demand has improved and the price center of gravity has risen. It is expected that the price center of gravity will continue to stand firm at 1500 yuan / ton next week, and may continue to fluctuate between 1470 U.S. dollars / ton and 1520 U.S. dollars / ton next week.

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Catalogue of "SMM Aluminum Industry chain Weekly report" in this issue

Main points of this issue's weekly report

1. Domestic demand in the downstream bright spot of aluminum is still strong and the impact of weak export orders is initially revealed.

2. Domestic alumina price performance horizontal market transaction is still deadlocked

3. National average complete cost composition of aluminum electrolysis

4. Short-term spot shortage in circulation the price gap between Guangdong and Shanghai has widened greatly.

5. The base price has risen sharply, the processing fee is under pressure, and the price difference between big and small bars has widened.

6. The quantity of imported goods continues to increase and the supply pressure brings its prices down.

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The contents of "SMM China Aluminum Industry chain High-end report" include: macro hot spots, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, waste aluminum, aluminum accessories, aluminum, waste aluminum pre-baked anode analysis, the scope to accommodate the spot market, futures, inventory market performance and aluminum processing start-up rate research, and pay attention to real-time LME, SHFE and SMM prices. "View details

The "SMM China Aluminum Industry chain routine report" includes: macro hot spots, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, waste aluminum, pre-baked anode analysis, spot market, futures, inventory performance and other changes and related news, and focuses on real-time LME, SHFE and SMM price trends. "View details