[SMM Daily Review] Shanghai Aluminum and Shanghai Zinc rose by more than 1%. Non-ferrous metals rose and fell. The black system market is still low. Threaded iron ore is still weak and volatile.

SMM4 29: today's non-ferrous market ups and downs, the overall volatility is not large. Shanghai aluminum rose 1%, Shanghai aluminum to the warehouse speed accelerated, released last period of data show that as of April 24, shanghai aluminum inventory continued to decline and speed up, weekly inventory fell 5.64% to 458403 tons, brushing the latest two-month low. Shanghai nickel fell 0.39%. According to SMM research, the final value of the PMI composite index of nickel downstream industries in April 2020 was 51.76%, 4.55 percentage points lower than that in March 2020, still higher than the rise and fall line. Enterprise production tends to be stable, coupled with the order performance in April, and other factors make PMI decline, but still above the withered line "view details Shanghai zinc rose 1.8%, in the short term, zinc price fundamentals are mainly supported by the supply side, consumer increments still need to pay attention to whether galvanized orders can be sustained, and whether alloy enterprises can recover.

The black system maintained a weak shock, with threaded iron ore falling slightly, with only the hot coil rising 0.22%. According to SMM research, due to the influence of cold system deviation and production loss in May, it is planned to reduce the production of cold system products, which will flow to building materials, medium plate and hot rolling respectively, which will increase the output of these varieties in May. At the same time, the steel mill said that in May, the hot rolling production line is close to full production, and there has also been an increase in the number of hot rolled goods put on the market, which will put some pressure on the supply of hot rolling. Follow-up, May steel plant specific planned output, please pay attention to the SMM hot rolling scheduling report

Crude oil rose 7.36% in the previous period. The Saudi central bank's foreign net assets fell by $27 billion in March, the biggest drop in at least 2000 years, as oil prices plummeted. Industry insiders analyze that the recent sharp fall in oil prices may have prompted the Saudi government to cut production ahead of schedule. The IMF estimates that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices of more than $80 a barrel to make ends meet. Saudi Aramco has begun cutting production early, reaching the agreed level of 8.5 million barrels a day by May 1.

As of today's daytime close:

As of 16:10, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:

Today's capital flow

In terms of capital flow, before the May Day holiday, some of the funds began to leave early, the commodity index encountered 437800 hand reduction, outflow of funds 1.927 billion yuan. Black market is still in the doldrums, 1.078 billion funds choose to leave, of which coke outflow capital of nearly 600 million yuan. Non-ferrous metals strengthened in an all-round way, getting 196 million funds. It is worth noting that the strong rebound of chemicals encountered nearly 170000 hands reduction, outflow of funds reached 500 million yuan, of which fuel encountered 57900 hands reduction, asphalt, methanol reduction are more than 40, 000 hands.

Brief comment of SMM analyst on April 29th

Copper: the main force of copper in Shanghai opened 42410 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, the price of copper rose to 42640 yuan / ton in the short term. After a slight fall, it rose again to a daily high of 42720 yuan / ton. Then Shanghai copper turned down, slowly down, closing at 42610 yuan / ton at midday. In the afternoon, copper prices fell to a daily low of 42380 yuan / ton due to short forces. Near the end of the day, copper prices closed at 42510 yuan / ton, up 210 yuan / ton, or 0.50%. The daily position of the main contract of Shanghai Copper decreased by 126 hands to 113000 hands, mainly by short positions, and the trading volume decreased by 4767 hands to 67000 hands. Shanghai Copper 2005 contract significantly reduced positions, day reduction of more than 7000 hands, to 44000 hands, mainly for short reduction; long-month contracts to increase positions at different levels. Shanghai copper jumped high today, mainly affected by the rise in oil prices. API crude oil inventory data for the week of April 24 released today, inventory growth was lower than expected, at the same time, as countries plan to lift anti-epidemic restrictions, the market for crude oil demand recovery expectations strengthened. Oil prices continued last night's rally in the morning, boosting copper prices. Fundamental news also supports copper. First Quantum cut its copper guide this year by 75000 tons to 755000-805000 tons. Today, Shanghai copper closed in Yang, but failed to hold on to 42700 yuan / ton, and then fell back to the 42500 level, and the long and short sides left the scene one after another because of the risk aversion mood before the festival. Today, the Federal Reserve interest rate resolution and the US first quarter GDP data will be released soon, the market has expected the economy to shrink, focusing on how the Fed has used a variety of policy tools to continue to release liquidity to support the economic recovery.

Lead: within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2006 contract opened at 13800 yuan / ton, the whole day basic pressure daily average line narrow range fluctuation, finally closed at 13745 yuan / ton, the position reduced 433 hands to 25340 hands, down 95 yuan / ton, down 0.69%. Shanghai lead closed in the small negative line, the lower moving average densely formed a strong support, however, the fundamentals became weak, the stock preparation before the festival was limited, only the large battery factory took action, at the same time, the new production increment of the recycled lead supply end in May was significant. It is expected that the downward shift of the center of gravity of lead price in May is a high probability event.

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