Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-5-3)

SHANGHAI, May 3 (SMM) –Market attention will focus on API US crude oil stocks, US April ADP employment, the euro zone’s Q1 GDP and March PPI today. 

It is expected that US ADP employment will fall sharply in April. Employment sub-index of the ISM’s US April manufacturing PMI fell to 6-month low. This will increase possibility that the US Fed’s policy decision, due on Thursday, will be dovish. 

Market sees little chance for the US Fed to raise interest rate in May. It was widely expected earlier that the US Fed might begin cut balance sheet before the end of 2017 at the earliest. It is still uncertain to what extent interest rate is raised before balance sheet reduction begins.    

It is expected that the US Republican Party will begin voting on medical reform program on Wednesday. The medical reform failed earlier, which increased worries that Trump’s policies face difficulty in being carried out. However, news surrounding tax reform last week reignited hopes that medical reform will be restarted.  

Market will closely watch TV debate between Macron, independent candidate for French president and Le Pen, extreme right wing president candidate. Macron was one step ahead, while Le Pen is catching up. While chances are small for Le Pen to win, market risk aversion will return.     

API’s US crude oil stocks fell more than expected last week, helping oil prices bottom out. If EIA’s US crude oil stocks, due for release tonight, also point to declines, oil prices might rebound further. 

See SMM price forecast, please click: SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (May 3, 2017)