On Wednesday, precious metals continued to rebound, with Shanghai Gold rising 0.66% and Shanghai Silver up 0.92%. It was boosted by heightened inflation fears and tensions between Russia and Ukraine, but gains in the dollar and US stocks limited gains. During the day, you can mainly follow the remarks of Fed officials, and investors are focusing on the January CPI data released on Thursday for further clues to the Fed's policy of raising interest rates.
Us inflation figures for January will be released on Thursday. According to a survey, the US consumer price index is expected to rise 7.3% year on year in January and is expected to continue to reach its highest level since 1982. Based on CME's FedWatch tool, market participants expect the chances of the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points by more than 70 per cent at its mid-March meeting and nearly 30 per cent by 50 basis points.
The dollar strengthened and the euro weakened on Tuesday, a day after ECB President Christine Lagarde refuted expectations of a radical rate hike that rattled bond markets. The more hawkish language of the ECB and Fed last week caught markets off guard and sent eurozone and US bond yields soaring as interest rates were expected to rise faster than previously expected.
As for the future trend, ITC Futures believes that the strong January non-farm payrolls report heightened market expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike, which was basically confirmed in March. And close to the two indicators of "full employment" and high inflation means that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates four times this year, and there is a high probability that it will start shrinking at the same time this year, which means that there is still much room for the future US real interest rates to rise, and the superimposed dollar index is supported by the resilience of the US economic recovery, so gold and silver maintain a bearish view in the medium term. It is recommended that short orders continue to be held, and those who do not enter the market are advised to short 2206 contracts at high prices.
