[SMM comment] Nonferrous mutual ups and downs gold and silver up more than 1% steel decline continues to oil on the strong shock

SMM5 March 26: yesterday, the outer metal market was green, red and thin, while Lun Copper fell on Tuesday on concerns that China would crack down on higher industrial metals prices, but a weaker dollar and expectations of strong demand and tight supply helped support market sentiment. Today, the LME metal market has ups and downs. As of 09:30 in the morning, Lun Copper was flat, Lun Aluminum was down nearly 0.3%, Lun lead was down nearly 0.4%, Lun Zinc was up nearly 0.1%, Lun Nickel was up nearly 0.2%, and Lunxi was flat. Domestically, international copper and shanghai copper fell nearly 0.7%, shanghai aluminum rose nearly 0.3%, shanghai lead was flat, shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.7%, shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.1%, shanghai tin rose nearly 0.6%.

On the copper side, on the macro side, overnight economic data show that the total annualized sales of new homes in the United States reached 863000 after the April quarterly adjustment, far below market expectations. In addition, the U.S. consumer confidence index fell for the first time this year in May, a sign of inflation.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the lower-than-expected sales of Meixinghe pushed down the pressure on copper futures.

Aluminum, fundamentals, short-term aluminum consumption in the context of the peak season, while the supply side is disturbed, to the treasury cycle is expected to be extended, the market selling rumors rise again. SMM believes that the short-term impact of macro-control on aluminum prices is greater than the fundamentals, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to continue to be under pressure concussion pullback, pay attention to possible policy trends.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] in May, scrap aluminum import materials will still be slightly weaker than the previous week in spot trading of more than 100000 tons of aluminum ingots.

In terms of lead, overnight, the dollar index continued to fluctuate at a low level, and Lun lead rose slightly in the late trading atmosphere of LME non-ferrous metals, recording a long shadow line positive pillar. During the day, we still need to pay attention to the first line support of 2100 US dollars / ton under Lun lead. Overnight Shanghai lead trend is stable, closed up slightly, long-short trading is cautious, during the day still need to pay attention to Shanghai lead below the 40-day moving average, 15300 yuan / ton first-line support. It is expected that the average price of SMM1# lead today.

[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] lead rebounded slightly overnight and the spot market discount maintained.

Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a positive column, the upper 10-day moving average to form a pressure, the lower Bollinger Road rail to provide support. Overnight outer disk uplink led Shanghai zinc performance strong, short-term zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly, in the context of the country's macro-control of commodities, it is expected to limit the upward space of zinc prices.

[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] short-term zinc prices are difficult to break new highs and are expected to maintain range volatility.

In terms of nickel, nickel ended at the end of 4 consecutive overcast, rising to around 125000 yuan / ton. Due to recent downstream purchases have been bargain-hunting, so although the rise in nickel prices is limited, but spot trading is obviously not as good as yesterday. Russian nickel quotation is looser than yesterday, Shanghai nickel 07 contract quoted flat water to rise 100 yuan / ton, discount supply is few. Jinchuan nickel against Shanghai nickel 07 contract rose 3000-3200 yuan / ton, trading was weak after the opening of the morning market.

[minutes of SMM Nickel Morning meeting] Shanghai Nickel maintained a volatile trend and spot trading weakened slightly.

For the black system, the thread fell nearly 2.3%, the hot coil fell nearly 1.7%, the coking coal rose nearly 0.6%, the coke rose slightly, the iron ore rose nearly 0.1%, and the stainless steel fell nearly 0.8%. In terms of threads, SMM tracking data show that a total of 83 ships arrived at China's main ports from May 16 to May 22, and the incoming cargo volume is expected to be 12.48 million tons, an increase of 300000 tons over the previous period and a decrease of 890000 tons compared with the same period last year. During the period, Australia's port departure increased by 1.74 million tons month-on-month to 17.3 million tons, basically unchanged from the same period last year, while Brazil's port departure increased by 1.36 million tons to 7.03 million tons in the current month-on-month period, an increase of 1.51 million tons over the same period last year. This period of arrival to Hong Kong continues to increase slightly, Australia and Pakistan shipments are significantly increased, and recently due to a sharp drop in steel prices, steel mill profits have shrunk rapidly, the enthusiasm for iron ore procurement is not high, port inventory may begin to accumulate in the later stage.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Thread short-term market prices may still fluctuate downwards in the medium term of consolidation

The last period of crude oil rose nearly 1.1%, international oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday, the approaching summer driving season in the northern hemisphere and the lifting of novel coronavirus restrictions pushed up demand, wrestling with fears that Iran's possible return to the oil market would lead to a supply glut.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 1.2%, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 1.9%. Comex gold futures closed higher on Tuesday, approaching the key resistance level of $1900 an ounce, as data showed a month-on-month decline in US consumer confidence and new home sales, boosting gold's safe-haven attractiveness.

As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

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