[SMM comment] Nonferrous mixed ups and downs Shanghai lead led by nearly 2% gold and silver pressure last period crude oil shock higher

SMM3 March 30: metals on the outer disk rose and fell yesterday, and Lunchong slipped on Monday, resurfacing container ships blocked by the Suez Canal, and concerns about rising freight rates receded, and negative sentiment was reinforced by a stronger dollar. Analysts pointed out that copper prices fell after we saw the news of the ship blocking the Suez Canal. Freight may still be affected by a chain reaction and ships are lining up, but at least the canal is no longer clogged. There were ups and downs in LME metals in early trading. As of 09:30 in the morning, Lun Copper fell slightly, Lun Aluminum fell nearly 0.3%, Lun Zinc rose slightly, Lun Nickel rose nearly 0.7%, Lun lead rose nearly 0.1%, and Lunxi was flat. Domestically, international copper and shanghai copper fell nearly 0.2%, shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.3%, shanghai lead rose nearly 1.9%, shanghai zinc and nickel rose nearly 0.5%, and shanghai tin rose nearly 0.2%.

In terms of copper, macroscopically, the epidemic data of novel coronavirus in the United States have deteriorated, and the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths have all accelerated. The Biden government has called on states to slow down the pace of relaxing epidemic prevention measures. The "Changzhi" successfully shrunk, and the ships of the Suez Canal gradually resumed their passage. Last night, the US index hit 92.965 in intraday trading, the highest level since November last year. Copper futures are under pressure from a stronger dollar and rising US bond yields.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the US dollar continues to strengthen and copper is under pressure during the period of strength. It is obvious that the spot market at the end of the month shows a sawing trend.

Aluminum, the short-term Shanghai aluminum continued high wide range concussion. On the whole, the import window still exists, but the market inflow of imported aluminum ingots is not concentrated, and most imports flow directly downstream. In the short term, the spot to the absolute price rise still needs time to digest, the discount pattern may continue. Medium-term continue to pay attention to long short mood changes, it is recommended to increase shipments upstream, downstream procurement on demand-based, careful to chase high. Fundamentals focus on changes in aluminum ingot inventory and their impact on short-term mood swings in the market. Domestic unilateral advice to be cautious to chase more.

[summary of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] the inventory of aluminum society continues to go to Kushang Aluminum to continue the wide shock.

In terms of lead, overnight, Lun lead received three consecutive yang, moving the center of gravity upward, and collecting small positive pillars. This week Lun lead showed signs of a low rebound, wearing the 5-day, 10-day moving average, during the day to pay attention to whether Lun lead can continue the long market to continue to challenge the 20-day moving average target. Overnight bulls increased positions to boost Shanghai lead strong shock, stood back above the moving average group, recovered all the decline last week, leading the night increase. Recently, the spot market tends to be light, in the case of high levels of lead in Shanghai, we should pay attention to the impact of the selling value of consignors on the trend of lead in Shanghai, and pay attention to the support of the lower 40-day moving average during the day. It is expected that today's spot lead is better than yesterday's.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead is strong and volatile during the overnight trading period. The trading activity of the market is slightly lower.

In terms of zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a small positive column, daily K center of gravity moved up, Bollinger Road on the rail has the potential to shrink to form a pressure, the lower moving average to provide support. The United States will announce trillions of infrastructure plans this week to boost market confidence, add to the continued decline in social inventories, and once again boost bulls' confidence and support the upward trend in zinc prices, which are expected to remain strong and volatile in the short term.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc fundamentals are relatively optimistic and pay attention to changes in macro mood.

As for the black system, the thread fell nearly 0.1%, the hot coil rose nearly 1.2%, coking coal rose nearly 2.3%, coke fell slightly, iron ore fell nearly 1.7%, stainless steel rose nearly 1.1%. Yesterday, the main contract I2105 rose 4.56% in a day. Some steel enterprises made more active inquiries in the morning. As the market continues to strengthen, the quotations of some merchants begin to rise gradually, and the bargaining space narrows. According to the statistics of blast furnace maintenance data of SMM Steel Plant, the amount of hot metal affected by blast furnace overhaul this week increased by 856000 tons over last week to 5.815 million tons. Coupled with the fact that production in Tangshan area is still limited, it will take time for the demand side to fully recover. However, it is understood that at present, the profits of domestic long-process steel mills are better, and the profits of some steel mills are as high as 600 yuan / ton. coupled with the recent narrowing of the growth rate of imported ore port inventory, there is still support for iron ore prices.

Crude oil rose nearly 1.3 per cent in the previous period and crude oil futures rose nearly 1 per cent on Monday after reports that Russia would support the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries and the Union of Petroleum producers ((OPEC)) to keep production roughly unchanged in May and that OPEC would hold a meeting later this week. Analysts point out that the market is looking beyond the Suez Canal to the upcoming OPEC meeting, and there are strong signs that they will maintain production cuts.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.8%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 0.9%. Comex gold futures closed at a three-week low on Monday, as the strong dollar and rising US Treasury yields undermined the attractiveness of safe-haven gold and put pressure on bets that the US economy would recover quickly. Analysts point out that bulls in the gold and silver markets need a fundamental bright spot. A rebound in the dollar and rising yields have limited buying interest.

As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets: