[SMM comment] Federal Reserve dove Collective strength Gold and Silver benefit rebounded and continued to rebound

SMM3 March 18: most of the metal in the outer disk was red yesterday, and Lun Copper climbed on Wednesday as there were signs of rising demand for copper, but rising inventories and a stronger dollar ahead of the Fed's announcement limited gains. Analysts point out that copper is still in a good long-term environment, and commodities are generally in a bull market given some structural changes in demand for energy metals. As of 10:00, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.4%, Lun Aluminum and Lunxi rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.8%, Lun Ni rose nearly 1.3%, Lun lead rose nearly 0.6%, domestic copper and Shanghai Copper rose nearly 1.2%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 0.7%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 0.3%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 1%, Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 0.7%, and Shanghai Tin rose nearly 1%. The Fed continued to stand still and stated that it was dovish, saying that it would maintain the pace of bond purchases, seek to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, and hinted that it was in no hurry to raise interest rates at the end of 2023, giving a boost to pro-cyclical commodities represented by non-ferrous metals. In addition, the dollar suffered a sell-off, the dollar index fell significantly, also supporting the trend of metals.

On the copper side, on the macro side, the Federal Reserve released its latest March interest rate decision, in line with market expectations. Powell reiterated that rising inflation is temporary and that there is no need to take action on rising US bond yields, predicting that benchmark interest rates will remain near zero until the end of 2023. The Fed's zero interest rate outlook and quantitative easing remained unchanged, while the three major indexes of US stocks rose across the board, with the S & P 500 and the Dow rising to record highs. The dollar index fell sharply in intraday trading, with copper for night delivery.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the Federal Reserve maintains zero interest rates and looks forward to the momentum of copper gains overnight.

Aluminum, the short-term Shanghai aluminum continued high wide range concussion. On the whole, the import window still exists, but the market inflow of imported aluminum ingots is not concentrated, and most imports flow directly downstream. In the short term, the spot to the absolute price rise still needs time to digest, the discount pattern may continue. Medium-term continue to pay attention to long short mood changes, it is recommended to increase shipments upstream, downstream procurement on demand-based, careful to chase high. Fundamentals focus on changes in aluminum ingot inventory and their impact on short-term mood swings in the market. Domestic unilateral advice to be cautious to chase more.

[summary of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] Macro-positive combined with domestic carbon neutralization and fermentation of Shanghai aluminum to maintain a strong shock.

In terms of lead, overnight, the dollar index rose for three consecutive days to put pressure on Lun lead, although the dollar index fell just before the close, but the lead fell, falling below the first-line support level of US $1930 / ton in December last year, the lowest level since 2021. LME lead inventory ended the continuous accumulation, reduced 425 tons to 124525 tons, during the day to watch whether the dollar index continued to decline, Tizhenlun lead stabilized. Overnight, the Shanghai lead fell back after rising, the shock was weak, walked out of the long upper shadow line negative column, fell below the moving average group, and paid attention to whether the Shanghai lead could stand firm at 14800 yuan / ton during the day. It is expected that the price of lead today is higher than that of yesterday.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead weakens during the overnight trading period and the rigid demand of downstream enterprises is mainly wait-and-see and cautious.

In terms of zinc, overnight outer disk uplink led Shanghai zinc concussion uplink, under the macro positive background, yesterday's zinc price weakening spot market transaction slightly improved, but downstream galvanizing enterprise orders have not significantly improved, expected short-term zinc price volatility is strong. In the short term, we should pay attention to the actual production reduction of mines and smelters under the double control of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia.

[summary of SMM Morning meeting] short-term zinc price shock is too strong to pay attention to the actual production reduction of mines and smelters under double control of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia.

In terms of nickel, the future nickel is weak, the market trading situation is still not significantly improved, the fundamentals are running smoothly, the Fed is optimistic, the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 0% copyright 0.25%, and macro sentiment may improve to stimulate a recovery in commodities. Nickel futures are still expected for shock consolidation for the time being, and the main contract price of Shanghai nickel is expected to run at 118000 to 126000 yuan / ton this week. Renni is expected to operate at US $15700 to US $16,500 per ton.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel consolidation trend is difficult to break macro-emotional strength or only short-term boost

In terms of black series, thread rose nearly 1.3%, hot coil rose nearly 0.8%, coking coal rose nearly 1%, coke nearly 3.2%, iron ore rose nearly 2.7%, stainless steel rose nearly 0.6%, iron ore, the fifth round of coke recently landed successfully, but SMM port inventory data show that the domestic main port ore inventory began to decline slightly this week, lump ore performance-to-price ratio has not significantly improved. In addition, it is understood that the follow-up production of steel mills in Tangshan area is still greatly affected by the weather, there is a possibility of periodic production restrictions with changes in the weather, and the local iron ore demand is still difficult to release. However, considering that finished material inventory is expected to decline in the near future, thread prices are good or give a boost to the price of iron ore raw materials.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the stock of finished materials is expected to decline and the price of finished materials will give a boost to the price of iron ore raw materials.

The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 1%, and international oil prices closed lower on Wednesday, dragged down by expectations of weak demand in Europe and an increase in commercial crude oil inventories in the United States last week. Us inventories of crude oil, gasoline and distillates all increased last week, with more facilities resuming production and refineries ramping up production after a devastating storm in Texas in February, the (EIA) said on Wednesday. The (IEA) of the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that oil prices were unlikely to make a dramatic sustained jump and that demand was not expected to return to pre-novel coronavirus levels until 2023, adding to the pressure on oil prices.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.9%, Shanghai silver rose nearly 2.5%, Comex gold futures closed lower on Wednesday, and US Treasury yields continued to climb, putting pressure on gold prices. But gold prices rebounded slightly after the Fed hinted that it would not raise interest rates until the end of 2023. Analysts pointed out that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced on Wednesday that it would keep interest rates unchanged and continue to stick to its plan to buy Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, in line with market expectations. He also said that Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell reiterated that the Fed is not worried about inflation and will continue to adhere to loose monetary policy to achieve the goal of full employment and inflation. As a result, the market environment is still favorable for gold.

As of 10:00, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

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