[SMM comment] non-ferrous floating green Shanghai copper led a decline of more than 1%, Shuangjiao continued a strong Shanghai silver dive and fell back.

SMM3 March 17: most of the metal in the outer disk was green yesterday, and Lun Copper fell sharply on Tuesday as investors sold some long positions in an atmosphere of uncertainty before the central bank meeting. Some analysts pointed out that the market has digested a lot of positive news, a lot of positive expectations about electric vehicles. It is natural for some savvy investors to take profits or wait and see. Although the market is very worried about the inflation outlook, central banks around the world still tend to ease monetary policy, so there is such a difference, which creates uncertainty. Most of the LME metal market was red this morning. As of around 09:20, Lun copper and aluminum were up nearly 0.4 per cent, lun zinc and lun lead were up nearly 0.3 per cent, Lunxi was flat and Len nickel was down nearly 0.2 per cent. Domestically, international copper and shanghai copper fell nearly 1.5%, shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.7%, shanghai lead fell nearly 0.8%, shanghai zinc fell nearly 1%, shanghai nickel fell nearly 0.5%, shanghai tin fell nearly 0.8%.

On the copper side, on the macro side, US economic data released at night showed that due to factors such as bad weather, manufacturing output and retail sales fell unexpectedly in February, the dollar index fluctuated sharply in intraday trading, macro optimism cooled somewhat, and copper futures fell under pressure.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper weakens in and out of overnight trading. Today, focus on the Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate resolution.

Aluminum, the short-term Shanghai aluminum continued high wide range concussion. On the whole, the import window still exists, but the market inflow of imported aluminum ingots is not concentrated, and most imports flow directly downstream. In the short term, the spot to the absolute price rise still needs time to digest, the discount pattern may continue. Medium-term continue to pay attention to long short mood changes, it is recommended to increase shipments upstream, downstream procurement on demand-based, careful to chase high. Fundamentals focus on changes in aluminum ingot inventory and their impact on short-term mood swings in the market. Domestic unilateral advice to be cautious to catch up with more.

[summary of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] Shanghai Aluminum continues the high position and wide range to shake the spot discount pattern or continue.

With regard to lead, overnight, uncertainty on the eve of the FED central bank meeting macroscopically affected the investment market bulls to reduce their positions and avoid risks. Lun Copper led the decline and dragged down the general decline of overseas basic metals. Lun lead closed the negative pillar in this atmosphere, pointing to the first-line low of 1930 US dollars / ton in December last year. LME lead inventory continued to accumulate continuously, increasing by 725 tons to 124950 tons, and Lun lead focused on the first-line support of US $1930 / ton during the day. Overnight, the center of gravity of Shanghai lead moved slightly downward, again under pressure on the 5-day moving average, closing down slightly, paying attention to the impact of the trend of Shanghai copper and other metals on Shanghai lead during the day. It is expected that the price of lead today is higher than that of yesterday.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead weakening in the overnight trading period may continue the trend of low shock in the near future.

Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a cross line, the upper 5-day moving average to form a suppression, the lower 10 / 20 moving average to provide support. Overnight outer disk downward drag, Shanghai zinc concussion is also weak. Recently, under the high zinc price, the turnover in the spot market is light, and the superimposed environmental protection measures in North China have also caused a certain disturbance to the downstream galvanizing production, resulting in an increase in social inventory. however, the short-term tight pattern of the mine end has not changed, and under the expectation of infrastructure consumption, there is still action energy after a brief correction in zinc prices.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] overnight macro guidance selling Shanghai zinc concussion is weak

On the nickel side, the news of the conversion of NPI to high matte in early March triggered an once-in-a-decade fall in nickel prices. The weak market for nickel has not improved to this day, and the concern about the accident at Glencore Western Australia Nickel-Cobalt Mine this week partly reflects the rising sentiment in the market, which is expected to affect less than 1000 nickel tons. At present, after the sharp fall in nickel prices, whether we can stop the decline needs to pay attention to the cost line support of each process, for whether the short-term price is in the overfall range and whether it can rebound in the future, we need to pay attention to the consumption power of nickel beans. Therefore, in the case of the limited impact of the Western Australian nickel-cobalt mine accident on production, whether LME nickel beans can be reduced or not will become an important indicator of the rise and fall of nickel prices. The contract price of Shanghai Nickel main Company is expected this week.

[summary of SMM Morning meeting] feedback on overseas Nickel Project Accidents whether the rising sentiment can rebound or we still need to pay attention to the change of Nickel Bean inventory.

In terms of black series, the thread fell by nearly 0.1%, the hot coil by nearly 0.8%, coking coal by nearly 2.8%, coke by nearly 1.3%, iron ore by nearly 0.1% and stainless steel by nearly 1%. According to SMM research, as of March 16, the operating rate of 34 independent electric arc furnace steel mills with major building materials across the country was 83.79%, up 0.31% from last week. It is mainly due to high profits. According to the SMM data model, the current profit of producing rebar per ton of rebar in the electric arc furnace steel plant is 305RMB, and the actual feedback profit of the steel mill is also about 200300RMB. Coupled with the recent pick-up of terminal demand, the production will of the steel mill continues to be strong, and it is expected that it will continue to maintain a high level in the short term.

[summary of SMM Morning meeting] what is the specific impact of export tax rebate on speculation?

The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 0.2%, crude oil futures closed down for the third trading day in a row on Tuesday, and the market expects extremely cold weather in Texas last month to cause U.S. crude oil stocks to rise for the fourth consecutive week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration ((EIA)) announced last week that U.S. crude oil stocks rose by 13.8 million barrels in the week ended March 5. Crude oil stocks soared by 21.6 million barrels in the week ended February 26th. Crude oil stocks rose by 1.3 million barrels in the week ended February 19th.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.1%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 1.5%. Comex gold futures rose slightly on Tuesday, as investors waited for policy hints from the Fed's two-day meeting. Data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. retail sales fell 3% in February, the lowest since April last year, due to the failure of government bailouts and unusually bad weather. Industrial output also fell 2.2 per cent last month.

As of 09:20, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

"Click to see more metal futures.