[SMM comment] Shanghai lead lead down 3%, Nonferrous Plus fell more than 2%, Shanghai Silver fell more than 9%, Shanghai Gold fell more than 4%.

SMM1, March 11: the outer disk fell sharply on Friday, and (LME) copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell from an eight-year high on Friday, raising doubts about how many infrastructure stimulus measures the incoming US government will be able to introduce. In addition, the U.S. Department of Labor announced on Friday that U.S. non-farm payrolls fell by 140000 after a quarterly adjustment in December, up from an increase of 245000, and the market is expected to increase by 50, 000. The unemployment rate in the United States was 6.7% in December, up from 6.7%, and the market is expected to be 6.8%. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market in early trading today. Lun Copper and Lun Al fell nearly 0.2%, Lun Zinc and Lun Ni rose nearly 0.2%, Lunxi fell nearly 1%, and Lunxi lead fell nearly 0.3%. Domestically, international copper and shanghai copper fell nearly 0.8%, shanghai aluminum fell nearly 1.4%, shanghai lead fell nearly 3%, shanghai zinc fell nearly 2.6%, shanghai nickel fell nearly 2.1%, shanghai tin fell nearly 2.2%.

Zinc, last Friday Lun zinc recorded a large negative column, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form a pressure, the lower 40-day moving average to provide support. The dollar index rose on Friday to put pressure on the US non-farm payrolls report in December, superimposed market doubts about how many infrastructure stimulus measures the incoming US government could introduce, and market optimism cooled. However, expectations of the new US administration's increased stimulus policy are expected to limit its decline. Pay short-term attention to the final details of the Biden administration's stimulus measures. Last Friday, Shanghai Zinc stopped Yang and turned Yin, giving back some of the previous day's gains, pressing above the 20-day moving average, providing support under the 60-day moving average, and narrowing the KDJ opening. The outer disk is a drag on the downside, and Shanghai Zinc is also weak. The impact of the domestic epidemic, superimposed near the end of the year, consumption off-season downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, orders are weak, social inventory is accumulated, consumer support is insufficient. However, the tight material at the low end of the TC mine limits the downward space of zinc price.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] inventory risk increases some of the gains of the day before Shanghai Zinc take back some of the mine-to-zinc prices are still underpinned.

In terms of nickel, the market has gradually verified that the fundamentals of stainless steel have been significantly improved, at the same time, the fundamental performance of nickel itself is stable, and the comprehensive performance of the domestic electrolytic nickel market is better than that of nickel pig iron, with the increase in the price of stainless steel, the price of high nickel pig iron also shows signs of slight improvement; in addition, the procurement cycle of the new energy industry is in advance, which makes the consumption of nickel sulfate good and the raw materials are in short supply. Although the fundamental performance is OK, but the current nickel price has rushed to a higher position, we need to pay attention to the impact of long profits on the disk, but the nickel price fundamentals can support, can maintain the high volatility trend, the downside space is limited. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel is 129000-134500 yuan / ton, Lunni is 17300-18200 US dollars / ton.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] stainless steel fundamentals have significantly improved the performance of nickel itself is stable.

In terms of tin, the spot price of Shanghai tin fell with the futures price last Friday, but the market discount has been raised, and the spot in circulation is less, the mainstream rising discount: the 2103 contract Yunxi discount is 200 yuan / ton to flat water, and the ordinary Yunzi discount is about 500 yuan / ton. the small brand discount is about 1200 yuan / ton. The downward price attracts the downstream to replenish the stock in the market, and the overall trading atmosphere is OK. Today's forecast: Shanghai tin position down, expected market discount will be raised accordingly, today's spot is expected to mainstream range of 154000-156000 yuan / ton.

"[1.11 Forecast of Tin Price Today]

In terms of black series, threads fell by nearly 1.8%, hot coils by nearly 2.2%, stainless steel by nearly 3.2%, coke by nearly 3.5%, coking coal by nearly 1.5%, iron ore by nearly 2%. In terms of threads, when the demand is gradually weakening, the supply side is disturbed by regional "power cuts" and the performance continues to be weak and stable. As a result, the overall spot fundamentals are still weak, but new price support points continue to flow, and the market's tolerance for high prices is forced to increase. In the later stage, although the downward pattern of price shocks has not changed, the sudden power cuts in Jiangsu may bring short-paced rebound opportunities to prices.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Steel mills continue to replenish the stock and keep strong support for iron ore prices.

The previous period of crude oil rose nearly 0.6%, and international crude oil futures rose on Friday, up about 8% on the weekly line, mainly due to Saudi Arabia's recent decision to take the initiative to reduce its crude oil production by 1 million barrels per day from next month. Saudi Arabia promised earlier this week to cut production by 1 million barrels a day in February and March. This led to the prospect of supply tightening sooner than expected, while the prospect of further fiscal stimulus from the Biden administration also spurred a broad rally in financial markets.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 4.2 per cent and Shanghai silver fell nearly 9.6 per cent. International gold prices fell more than 4 per cent on Friday, while silver prices plunged nearly 10 per cent as the precious metals market was hit hard by the prospect of a smooth transfer of power in Washington and soaring US bond yields. Analysts point out that gold is undergoing a major and fundamental shift for many investors, who are starting to give up safe-haven trading. You may see some strong capital flows in the US bond market, which weakens some of the attractiveness of gold.

As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

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