SMM Evening Comments (Mar 25)

SHANGHAI, Mar 25 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals dropped across the board on Monday, following a decline in oil prices. Copper and nickel tumbled close to 2%, aluminium and tin fell some 0.7%, zinc and lead lost about 0.6%.

The ferrous complex also traded lower. Rebar dropped 1.8%, hot-rolled coil declined 1.1%, coking coal slipped 0.6%, coke sank close to 0.3% and iron ore lost 0.2%.

Copper: During the day, the most traded SHFE May contract extended losses from Friday night and fell below the 60-day moving average and the lower Bollinger band to a low of 48,100 yuan/mt. It ended the trading day 1.96% lower at 48,120 yuan/mt. This created strong technical pressure over the contract. The contract is expected to try to remain above 48,100 yuan/mt tonight.

Aluminium: The most active SHFE May contract slid to the day-low of 13,620 yuan/mt in afternoon trade before it rebounded to end at 13,645 yuan/mt, below the five- and 10-day moving averages and down 0.73% on the day.

Zinc: The most liquid SHFE May contract declined shortly before closing, following a drop in its LME counterpart. This forced it to relinquish earlier gains to end the trading day 0.62% lower at 21,695 yuan/mt. Cooled market sentiment and losses in LME zinc accounted for the decline in SHFE zinc today. With relatively positive fundamentals, the SHFE 1905 contract is expected to hover among several moving averages tonight.

Nickel: The most active SHFE May contract fell to a low of 99,150 yuan/mt in afternoon trade. It finished the trading day 1.95% lower at 99,200 yuan/mt. Open interest for the June contract expanded to about 91,000 lots, about a-third of that for the May contract. Its KDJ lines diverged and MACD green bar extended.

Lead: As shorts added their positions at 17,000 yuan/mt, the most traded SHFE May contract fell past the five-day moving average to a low of 16,785 yuan/mt. With short-term shorts taking profits, the contract recovered some losses to close the trading day 0.56% lower at 16,850 yuan/mt. With strong support at 16,800 yuan/mt, the contract is expected to trade around the five-day moving average tonight.

Tin: The most active SHFE May contract extended losses from Friday night to the day-low of 146,640 yuan/mt before it pared some losses to end at 146,900 yuan/mt, down 0.72% on the day. The contract is expected to remain rangebound at lows in the short run, with support at 146,000 yuan/mt.