Tin Market Fluctuates at Highs Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts Due to Tight Supply and Weak Demand [SMM Tin Noon Commentary]

On the morning of August 21, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract fluctuated rangebound. At the midday break, it closed at 267,150 yuan/mt, a slight decrease of 0.48% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading range during the session was 266,510-269,040 yuan/mt, with sluggish transactions but the price center remaining high, reflecting a stalemate between bulls and bears. Meanwhile, LME tin prices closed at $33,740/mt overnight, with an increased willingness among some long positions to take profits.

The minutes of the US Fed's July meeting showed that most officials supported pausing interest rate cuts. Although the market maintained a 90% expectation for a September rate cut, the attitude became more cautious. The demand for the US dollar as a safe haven rose due to the US expanding its steel and aluminum tariff list. A 50% tariff on 407 types of industrial products impacted the wind power and auto parts industry chains, suppressing dollar-denominated commodities. Domestic policy support became evident, with the Ministry of Finance adding 69 billion yuan in consumer subsidies, focusing on stimulating demand in home appliances and automobiles, partially offsetting overseas macro headwinds and providing sentiment support for tin prices.

In the short term, SHFE tin is expected to continue moving sideways within the 267,000-270,000 yuan/mt range. Upside room is constrained by weak spot transactions and loosening LME long positions, but delayed resumption of production in Myanmar and high ore costs form a solid bottom support. Two key points need close attention: first, if the resumption of production in Wa State exceeds expectations, it may lead to a narrowing supply gap; second, whether demand from the semiconductor and PV sectors can offset the pressure of the traditional consumption off-season, providing new impetus for price breakthroughs. Investors are advised to pay attention to Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the evening global central bank conference, as a dovish signal could spark a new round of bullish momentum.