Aluminum ingot inventories face growing risk of continuous buildup

Although support from rush export orders ceased, considering that not all export orders have been delivered and domestic year-end order deliveries are still in demand, domestic downstream demand did not see a significant pullback, with most purchases made as needed. As of December 12, 2024, SMM statistics show domestic aluminum social inventory at 557,000 mt and domestic tradable aluminum inventory at 431,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of 10,000 mt WoW. Among these, Wuxi experienced the most noticeable concentrated arrivals and a decline in outflows, resulting in an inventory buildup of 10,000 mt in the region; Gongyi, although also seeing a slight increase in arrivals, had outflows going against the trend, allowing inventory levels to remain stable. In Foshan, after entering December, the weak performance of both supply and demand became more apparent, continuing the trend of slight destocking. On a YoY basis, current domestic aluminum ingot inventory has only decreased by 7,000 mt. SMM expects that in December, domestic aluminum ingot inventory will fluctuate around 550,000-650,000 mt, with the risk of continuous inventory buildup increasing, and inventory levels possibly reaching around 600,000 mt by mid to late December.