SMM Analysis on China November NPI Production and December Forecast

In November 2024, the national NPI production increased by approximately 8.64% MoM in physical content and by about 3.11% MoM in metal content. Both physical content and metal content continued their upward trend in November, mainly due to the resumption of production at smelters in north China after maintenance, which slightly boosted high-grade NPI production. Additionally, the price of high-grade NPI weakened due to the negative feedback from the decline in stainless steel prices. Coupled with a slight increase in nickel ore prices as the Philippines entered the rainy season, smelters suffered expanded losses. However, the high stainless steel production provided some support for demand, and traditional smelters maintained stable production. Another source of growth was the low-grade NPI production from integrated 200-series stainless steel mills. The 200-series production increased by 3.75% MoM in November, exceeding 1 million mt, strongly supporting the demand for low-grade NPI.

In December 2024, the national NPI production is expected to increase by approximately 2.13% MoM in physical content and by about 2.25% MoM in metal content. According to the SMM survey, integrated stainless steel mills in east China are expected to slightly increase their production schedule in December, pushing up the production of high-grade NPI. Leading integrated 200-series stainless steel mills are also expected to continue increasing their production schedule, with low-grade NPI production potentially rising by about 2.07% MoM compared to November. Overall, traditional smelters are expected to maintain stable production amid the downtrend in high-grade NPI prices and uptrend in stainless steel production, with growth mainly coming from integrated stainless steel mills.