In September, domestic tin ore import volume continued to decline, further exacerbating the shortage of tin ore [SMM Analysis]

In September, domestic tin ore import volume was 7,800 mt (approximately 3,859 mt metal content), down 10.79% MoM, up 8.40% YoY, a decrease of 489 mt metal content compared to August. The cumulative import volume from January to September was 123,000 mt, down 31.05% YoY. In September, domestic tin ingot import volume was 1,967 mt, up 9.58% MoM, down 32.73% YoY. The cumulative import volume from January to September was 12,243 mt, down 44.54% YoY.

In September, domestic tin ore import volume showed a slight decline, mainly due to a decrease in tin ore imports from Myanmar and Nigeria, while tin ore imports from other countries remained stable. Specifically, in September, tin ore imports from Myanmar were 1,400 mt (approximately 560 mt metal content), continuing to decline compared to August 2024. The authorities in Wa State, Myanmar, have not yet provided a clear indication of when tin ore production will resume. However, based on current market analysis and forecasts, tin ore imports from Myanmar are expected to remain at relatively low levels before year-end. Meanwhile, tin ore imports from Nigeria also declined but remained roughly consistent with previous levels, and are expected to maintain the current import volume in the future. From recent months' import data, tin ore imports from Myanmar have fallen to historical lows. Overall, the reduction in tin ore supply due to Myanmar's mining ban continues to impact domestic smelting enterprises. On the other hand, with the intermittent opening of the tin ingot import profit window, domestic tin ingot import volume has started to show an upward trend. According to the latest data, tin ingot import volume in September increased to 1,967 mt, with imports from Indonesia reaching 1,706 mt. Considering the recent brief reopening of the tin ingot import profit window and factors such as shipping schedules, tin ingot import volume in October is expected to increase. However, due to the limited and unstable opening time of the import profit window, tin ingot import volume is unlikely to recover to the level of the same period last year. Additionally, in September, domestic tin ingot export volume also returned to normal levels, with specific data showing 989 mt, down 10.01% MoM, up 36.23% YoY. The cumulative export volume from January to September 2024 reached 13,513 mt, up 30.99% YoY. However, considering the recent closure of the export window, tin ingot export volume is not expected to see significant growth in the future.