Gold price decoupling! Brexit does not promote preference sentiment the weakening dollar drives a modest rally

Опубликовано: Dec 25, 2020 11:31
Источник: FX168

Gold prices were not materially affected by the progress of the faltering Brexit deal, staying at $1878.70 before the holiday on Thursday, but a weaker dollar led to a modest rise. Gold investors are in a wait-and-see state, but so far the headlines are supportive, and the market is still optimistic about novel coronavirus's economic stimulus and economic prospects.

Gold closed at $1878.70 during the holiday, while February COMEX gold futures traded at $1882.60, up 0.24%.

Fundamental analysis: Brexit has reached an agreement to sell the pound instead of buying it.

Britain and the EU agreed on a new Brexit trade arrangement, more than four years after Britain voted to leave the EU, narrowly avoiding a lack of agreement that could have disastrous consequences. The Brexit trade agreement will be submitted to British Prime Minister Johnson and European Commission President Von Delane for approval, while Britain will withdraw from the EU single market and customs union on December 31. Johnson even wrote on Twitter that an agreement had been reached and pictures of thumbs up were posted. Johnson said at a news conference that he wanted to put an end to any uncertainty. "I am pleased to tell you that we have completed the largest trade agreement to date," he said. The agreement is a comprehensive Canadian-style agreement that will enable our company to do more with European countries. "

Von der Lane, president of the European Commission, said that Brexit is a long and tortuous road, but Britain and the European Union have made a lot of achievements. She stressed that this is a fair and balanced agreement and is the right and responsible thing for both sides. She alleges: "our negotiating position is tough because the EU says that if the UK wants to enter the single market without quotas, they are free to decide whether to play by the rules. She added: "Europe will continue to co-operate with the UK in all areas and the UK is a trusted partner."

Against this backdrop, the pound went above 30 points against the dollar in the short term to a high of 1.3614, but then quickly fell back from its high to 80 to 1.3531. The latest developments in Brexit on gold prices also suggest that the news that Brexit will eventually lead to an agreement on future trade relations is not materially attributed to a broad appetite for risk or investment preferences for gold. There was widespread speculation that a deal was imminent, but the final confirmation was clearly not unexpected and actually triggered a de facto reaction against buying and selling sterling. The price of gold, it seems, is trading at the high level of 1870.

Fundamental analysis: us economic stimulus measures yawn and Trump stalemate again

With Brexit coming to an end, the market has expressed concern about whether the United States can reach novel coronavirus's economic stimulus and overall spending budget before Christmas. The stalemate continues, and US President Donald Trump has so far refused to sign the law. "I ask Congress to amend this bill to raise the ridiculously low $600 to $2000," Trump said in a video. Or $4000 for a couple. Congress raised a lot of money for foreign countries, lobbyists and special interests, but provided minimal funds to the American people who needed it. It's not their fault, it's China's fault. I ask Congress to immediately remove wasteful and unnecessary items from this legislation and submit an appropriate bill to me, otherwise the next administration must submit a plan, and maybe the next administration will be me. "

House Republican leader McCarthy (McCarthy) has rejected Trump's request to increase the size of the check. The House of Representatives now needs to vote on the bill to increase the size of checks for American public assistance to $2000, but the Republican majority Senate is highly unlikely to approve the bill before its term expires in January. Despite Trump's reluctance to compromise, the White House is clinging to the hope that he will sign the existing bill.

Technical analysis:

The possibility of a continued breakthrough in gold prices in the future is gradually expanding, with the upper limit of gold prices connecting the downward trend of August, November and December highs and the lower limit of the upward trend of November 30, December 14 and December 23.

Заявление об источниках данных: За исключением общедоступной информации, все остальные данные обрабатываются SMM на основе общедоступной информации, рыночного общения и с опорой на внутреннюю базу данных и модели SMM. Они приведены только для справки и не являются рекомендациями для принятия решений.

По любым вопросам или для получения дополнительной информации, пожалуйста, свяжитесь: lemonzhao@smm.cn
Для получения дополнительной информации о доступе к нашим исследовательским отчётам обращайтесь:service.en@smm.cn