Macro Roundup (Apr 19)

SHANGHAI, Apr 19 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar inched up slightly overnight, buoyed by the rise in US treasury yield rate and the upbeat economic growth.

Base metals rose across the board. LME aluminium hit a fresh high since August 2011 with a 5.7% increase. LME nickel surged close to 7% and hit a three-year high at one point due to the misinterpretation of the de-listing of old Norilsk brands earlier this week. SHFE metals rose amid the strong performance of their LME counterparts. SHFE zinc led a gain of over 3%, nickel jumped close to 3%, copper jumped close to 2%, lead went up over 1%, and tin edged up slightly.

The UK consumer price index (CPI) in March dropped to a one-year low with a 2.5% year-on-year growth, below expectation and February’s 2.7%. The figure went up 0.1% month on month, below the expected 0.3% and February’s 0.4%. The core CPI rose 2.3% year on year, below the expected 2.5% and February’s 2.4%. This surprising drop in UK inflation is likely to raise questions over the interest rates hike by the Bank of England in May.

The eurozone's final CPI climbed up 1.3% year on year and up 1% month on month. The final core CPI rose 1% year on year. The inflation missed the forecasts as the growth in unprocessed food prices fell short of the expectations.

Inventories of US crude oil during the week ended April 19 unexpectedly fell by 1.07 million barrels, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline inventories dropped 2.97 million barrels and refined oil inventories shrank by 3.11 million barrels.

Day ahead

The weekly US unemployment insurance claim is the key factor to watch today. The figure for the week ended April 14 is estimated at 23, lower from the previous 23.3. As the figure remains below 30, indicating full employment, we see the 3.8% unemployment rate target set by the US Federal Reserve likely to be achieved within this year.

The US dollar is expected to stay moderately rangebound, while base metals are likely to trade steadily today.

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