Primary Aluminum, Lead markets record deficit; Copper ends in surplus

By Paul Ploumis

SPOKANE (Scrap Monster): The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) has published the Metals Balances Report for the first eleven months of the previous year. The global primary Aluminum and Lead markets recorded marginal deficits during Jan-Nov ’16. On the other hand, copper market recorded minor surplus during this period.

Aluminum                                                                                                                                       

The latest report published by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) indicates that global primary aluminum market has recorded a marginal deficit during the initial eleven months of 2016. As per the report, the market reported a deficit of 970,000 tons when matched with the deficit of 551,000 reported for the entire year 2015.

The production of primary aluminum has dropped by 221,000 tonnes during the eleven-month period from January to November last year. The total reported stock of metal declined further by 27,000 tonnes during the month of November 2016. The stocks at the end of the initial eleven-month period stood at 2,644 kt, which is sufficient to meet 17 days demand. It must be noted that the stock levels at the end of 2015 had stood at 3,787 kt. The combined stocks held in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo exchanges totaled 2,242.5 kt at the end of November, down by 988 kt when matched with end-2015 levels.

Global production fell slightly by 0.4% during the period from January to November in 2016. China, with estimated production of 28,982 kt, accounted for over 55% of the world production. Production in the EU-28 region dropped marginally by 0.8% and the output by NAFTA region fell by 9.9% year-on-year. The primary aluminum production for the month of November alone was 4,948.9 kt, whereas the consumption totaled 5,017.0 kt.

The net exports of Chinese aluminum semi manufacturers totaled 3,380 kt during the first eleven months of the year, when compared with 3,445 kt during Jan-Nov ’15.

The WBMS report also states that the global aluminum demand increased marginally by 68,000 tonnes during January to November last year to total 53.58 million tonnes, when compared with the corresponding period in 2015. The Chinese apparent demand was modestly lower by 0.6% when compared with 2015. However, EU-28 demand increased during January to November last year by 409 kt when compared with the year before.

Copper

The global copper market has recorded a surplus of 17,000 tonnes during January to November last year. It must be noted that the worldwide copper market had reported a surplus of 35,000 tonnes for the entire year 2015.

The global mine production during the period from January to November this year totaled 18.78 million tonnes. The mine production has grown by 7.0% when matched with the corresponding eleven-month period in 2015. Meantime, global refined copper output jumped higher by 2.7% over the previous year to 21.37 million tonnes. Chinese refined copper output reported significant increase of 422,000 tonnes during this period. Also, refined copper production was up sharply by 14,000 tonnes in Spain during the eleven-month period.

The global copper demand during Jan-Nov ’16 stood at 21.35 million tonnes, significantly higher when compared with 20.78 million tonnes during the same period in 2015. The Chinese apparent consumption increased by 273,000 tonnes during this period to total 10.515 million tonnes. The Chinese demand accounted for just over 49% of the global demand. Also, EU-28 apparent consumption increased modestly by 2.2% from Jan-Nov ’15 levels to 3.165 million tonnes.

According to the report, reported stocks of the metal stood lower by 23,200 tonnes during the initial eleven-month period of the year when compared with 2015 closing. The stocks declined modestly during the month of November last year.

The refined copper output during the month of November this year alone was 1,969.0 kt, whereas consumption during the month totaled 1,931.3 kt.

Lead

The global lead market has recorded a deficit of 66,000 tonnes during January to November last year. It must be noted that the worldwide lead market had reported a deficit of 14 kt for the entire year 2015.

The global refined lead output during Jan-Nov ’16 increased by 5.6% over the previous year to 9,886.2 kt. This is inclusive of production from primary and secondary sources.

The global lead demand during Jan-Nov ‘16 has surged higher by 580 kt. The Chinese apparent consumption in January to November 2016 totaled 3,940.3 kt, which is higher by 434.0 kt when matched with the corresponding eleven-month period in 2015. The Chinese apparent consumption represented almost 40% of the global total. The apparent demand dropped by 24 kt in the US.

The reported stocks of the metal at the end of November last year has declined by 3.2 kt when matched with the stock levels during the end of 2015.

The refined lead production during the month of November ’16 alone totaled 916.7 kt, whereas the consumption totaled 925.5 kt.