CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that for U.S. stocks, under the risk of recession and the Fed’s tightening monetary policy, the U.S. may fall into recession in the fourth quarter. And the liquidity environment can hardly support the current overvaluation.
The surge driven by technology blue chips may face "rebalancing”. Amid the expectations over recessions, in the third quarter, the consumption, healthcare and utilities sectors may outperform.
In the medium and long term, the market can focus on the semiconductor industry and Internet that is powered by AI, cost reduction, a high proportion of overseas income, and benefits from the depreciation of the US dollar.
However, in the second half of the year, the market still need to be alert to the default of US commercial real estate, the debt ceiling issue, and the liquidity risk that the US Treasury bond market may face after the debt ceiling is raised.
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