On May 19, a new round of political director-general meeting of the Joint Commission on the Comprehensive Agreement on Iran's Nuclear weapons was held in Vienna, Austria. Wang Qun, Chinese negotiator and permanent representative to the United Nations in Vienna, attended the meeting. Wang Qun said that the current negotiations on the resumption of implementation between the United States and Iraq have made overall progress, but there is still a long way to go to reach the goal of reaching an agreement. The parties concerned should redouble their efforts to put forward realistic and feasible proposals in the areas of lifting sanctions, measures in the nuclear field, and restoring the order of implementation, so as to promote the formation of a comprehensive and effective programme for the resumption of compliance. To this end, China also hopes that Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency will reach relevant arrangements for the extension of the interim bilateral Technical understanding in a timely manner.
After the meeting, Deputy Foreign Minister Aragezi, head of the Iranian delegation, said that great progress has been made in the negotiations and the parties have reached agreement on the main framework of the agreement, but there are still differences on some key issues. Negotiations on the draft agreement are still continuing. Russia's special envoy for negotiating the Iran nuclear deal said that Iran's nuclear talks have made "good" or "significant" progress and that an agreement is "just around the corner."
On the stock market side, European stocks continued to fall last night, with Germany's DAX index falling by 2%, France's CAC40 index down 1.98% and the UK's FTSE 100 index down 1.55%. For u.s. stocks, the Dow opened 320 points lower, the Nasdaq fell 1.7%, and the s & p 500 fell 1.3%. The block chain plate plummeted.
In the end, major European stock indexes generally fell more than 1%, the pan-European stock index and the Anglo-French-Italian-Spanish stock index both suffered the biggest decline since April 20, and the German stock index closed the biggest decline since January 27. The three major indexes of US stocks collectively closed down for three days in a row, falling for another three days after last Wednesday, but the decline was significantly narrower than the day-to-day low.
International oil prices plummeted, with US stocks down more than 5 per cent in intraday trading and Brent crude down 4.4 per cent. At the close of trading this morning, WTI June crude oil futures closed down 3.25% at US $63.36 per barrel, while Brent July crude oil futures closed down 2.98% at US $66.66 per barrel, both closing at their lowest level since April 27 and closing down about 3 per cent after Thursday, May 13.
Last night, the digital money market staged a "holocaust", Bitcoin, ethernet, dog coin and a number of cryptocurrencies were bloodwashed, all of them were spared. According to CoinMarketCap, mainstream cryptocurrencies tumbled across the board on Wednesday, with Letcoin, the 13th largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, down nearly 30% in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin, the 10th largest cryptocurrency, down more than 28%, and the seventh, sixth and third largest cryptocurrencies, Ruibo coin, dog coin and coin an coin, down more than 25%, 24% and 23%, respectively.
The rally also sent the total market capitalization of digital currencies down by more than $1,000bn from a peak to just over $1.7 trillion from $2.5 trillion on May 12, the lowest level since March.
It is worth noting that recently, there have been frequent negative voices and regulatory policies against virtual currencies.
On May 11th, it published an article saying that it should beware of the perverse business practices of the virtual currency exchange OKEx; on May 12th, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that it would suspend the use of bitcoin to buy cars; on May 15th, it published an article saying that the virtual currency was in chaos and that the "leek harvester" needed to be dealt with urgently; on May 17th, Tesla CEO Musk suspected that Tesla might sell bitcoin positions. On May 18, the three major associations issued a notice to warn against the risks of virtual currency transactions; on May 18, the Inner Mongolia Development and Reform Commission set up a virtual currency "mining" enterprise reporting platform.
New York gold futures rose for five days in a row, while COMEX June gold futures closed 0.7% higher at 1881.50 US dollars per ounce, the highest closing price for major contracts since January 7 for three consecutive days.
Iran's nuclear agreement shows new progress, and international oil prices have fallen twice in a row.
Affected by the obstruction of the surge of international oil prices overnight the previous trading day and the sharp downward turn of WTI crude oil in the middle of the night, the atmosphere of crude oil varieties turned cold on Wednesday, with a general dive at the opening and continuous falls in intraday trading, with the main contract of crude oil falling 2.66% to close at 421.2 yuan per barrel. All Neng Hua varieties fell, high-sulfur fuel oil main contract 2109 plunged 4.51% to close at 2374 yuan / ton, low-sulfur fuel oil main contract 2108 fell 3.30% to close at 3110 yuan / ton, LPG main contract 2106 continued the previous day's decline, continued to decline 2.04%, asphalt closed down 2.36% to close at 3224 yuan / ton.
Market participants said that the late-night plunge in international oil prices was mainly affected by the Iran issue. "in the early hours of yesterday morning, it was tweeted that Russia's special envoy for negotiating the Iran nuclear deal said that major progress in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear deal was about to be announced, triggering a sharp plunge in oil prices, causing a short-term plunge of US $1.50 per barrel. However, after such a toss, market sentiment is obviously more cautious and even slightly pessimistic, and oil prices have been adjusted." Yang an, head of energy research and development of Haitong futures, said.
Russia's statement has been misread. At the beginning, it was widely believed that a breakthrough had been made in the Iranian negotiations, with the return of Iranian crude oil close at hand, resulting in the trampling of positions by bulls and short positions. But then Russia said it was a positive development rather than a breakthrough, and crude oil recovered some of its decline after a panic decline. " Yu Jiansen, an analyst at Zhaojin Futures, said that in addition, there has been no sharp correction since the international crude oil started this round of rise on March 24, and after hitting a two-month high the day before yesterday, long profit-taking is also one of the main drivers of the market dive.
"in the past two weeks, oil prices have basically maintained a narrow oscillation trend under the pressure of resistance, and they have tried to go up several times, but the coordination of the news side is not ideal, short-term profits on the supply and demand side are scarce, and morale is low. In the absence of bullish impetus, it is difficult for oil prices to break through the previous March highs, in which case oil prices are likely to adjust with the recent cooling performance of the entire commodity market and seek support downwards. " Yang an said that the deep fall in oil prices is likely to be smaller, and that late oscillations are more likely to wait for more information to guide them.
In Kansen's view, global inflation expectations are now partly included in the price of crude oil. Since the outbreak of the global epidemic, the introduction of economic stimulus policies by various countries is obviously weaker than the start of the rise in crude oil. Of course, we have to see that there was a price war on crude oil at the beginning of the epidemic, and there was a certain oversell-off behavior. However, after more than a year of operation, crude oil is basically in a relatively reasonable position, and the price has returned to the rational range after the correction at the end of March. After the economy continues to recover, the crude oil price center can gradually rise, which has been reflected in the trend of oil prices in the past half a year. OPEC+ 's control of crude oil supply is practical and effective, and it is also in line with widespread expectations. The rise in international crude oil prices in the future still needs economic recovery to drive an increase in demand. " He said.
"at the macro level, countries around the world, including the United States, still regard economic recovery and job security as a top priority, so even though there are some signs in the market that inflationary pressures are high and the economy is worried about overheating, however, it still insists on maintaining loose liquidity to ensure a smooth recovery of fragile economies, while countries are still making every effort to launch policies to stimulate economic development. This ensures a strong demand for crude oil. " Yang an said that from the perspective of the authorities, the recovery of global crude oil demand will further accelerate in the summer and the second half of the year, and the situation that supply falls short of demand will step up efforts to remove storage, which basically ensures that the general trend of oil prices will still be a gradual rise in the center of gravity.
Yu Yansen also believes that there is little possibility of a sharp fall in international crude oil in the short term. "in the short term, the United States is about to enter the summer travel peak. North America, Northeast Asia, and Northwest Europe, the three major crude oil demand places, account for nearly 60 percent of the world's consumption, and the current economic conditions of these three regions are continuing to recover. the possibility of another sharp fall in crude oil is reduced, and the peak oil season in the second and third quarters will also bring obvious support to the market." He said that what needs to be paid attention to in the later period is the fourth quarter. At present, OPEC+ will adjust supply again in the third quarter, and it is possible to continue to increase supply, while the degree of global economic recovery in the fourth quarter is still unknown, then there are certain variables in market supply and demand, and there may be problems blindly bullish for the whole year.
Under the drag of crude oil, the Neng Hua sector all fell yesterday, among which high and low sulfur fuel oil also fell along with the oil price. However, du Bingqin, an analyst at Everbright Futures Energy, believes that the recent weak fundamentals of high and low sulfur fuel oil are also the reason for its lower disk price.
Although low-sulphur fuel oil shipments from the west are expected to fall to 1.6 million-1.8 million tonnes in May, down sharply from April, due to weak demand downstream of the Singapore low-sulphur fuel oil market and reduced supply of arbitrage goods from the Americas. However, at present, several major inventories in the world remain high. On the demand side, VLSFO sales in Singapore bottomed out in April in the past few months, with some terminal demand shifting from Singapore to China due to low prices in China. Although high sulphur is expected to be supported by seasonal consumption of power plants, demand growth is still relatively limited relative to peak season. At present, the spot discount of high and low sulfur in Singapore market has turned negative, and Singapore VLSFO is still in a mild Contango structure. In the environment of supply following refinery start-up, there is a lack of obvious increase in demand, and the contradiction of oversupply in the market is more obvious. " Du Bingqin said.
Judging from the current market trend of high-sulfur fuel oil, high volatility has become the main feature of the current disk. In this regard, du Bingqin said that the current cracking profit of high-sulfur fuel oil is low, so it is more sensitive to oil price fluctuations, rising and falling by a greater extent. "in the first half of the year, the global economy continued to recover, the superimposed OPEC maintained the strategy of reducing production, and the center of gravity of international oil prices moved upwards. Under the guidance of the policy of 'carbon peak and carbon neutralization', the price fluctuations of energy and chemical products intensified."
In du Bingqin's view, commodity prices, including crude oil, have generally risen under the current global economic recovery and inflation expectations. As the downstream product of crude oil, under the background of rising cost, the price center of fuel oil is expected to move up further in the future.
Black varieties fell across the board.
Yesterday, the black department fell across the board. Among them, rebar futures main contract 2110 fell 5.55% to 5309 yuan / ton, hot coil futures contract 2110 fell 5.16% to 5678 yuan / ton, at the same time, raw material end iron ore futures contract 2109 continued to decline, down 3.25% on the day to close at 1192.5 yuan / ton.
It is worth noting that the price of rebar and hot coil futures has fallen nearly 15% in the five trading days since the 13th. For such a sharp decline in the market, the New Lake Futures Black Industry Senior researcher said that it is mainly caused by the following reasons: first, the National standing Committee will pay attention to commodities again, at the same time, the NDRC and the Market Supervision and Administration and other departments have investigated the Tangshan area on the rapid rise in steel and ore prices. In addition, a number of departments in Tangshan and the Shanghai area have interviewed steel mills and traders about the rapid increase in steel prices, and the exchange has also introduced measures such as increasing deposits and handling fees; second, the current domestic Development and Reform Commission has proposed to reduce production capacity in retrospect. the policy of eliminating production has not been issued for a long time. "overall, domestic steel prices are rising too fast and the government is willing to suppress steel prices, leading to the domestic market's expectation that the de-production policy may be relaxed in 2021, leading to a loosening of the main logic of the previous rise." He said.
Fu Xiaoguang, a futures analyst at Huarong Rongda, believes that the rise in steel in May is a sharp rise in spot prices, which in turn drives up futures prices, and there is an atmosphere of rising or even false rises in prices, and it is more normal to turn down and adjust. Against this background, at the National standing Committee meeting held on the afternoon of the 12th, the prime minister asked all ministries and commissions to effectively deal with the current excessive rise and the impact of the industry. on the 14th, many departments in Tangshan, Shanghai and other places jointly interviewed iron and steel enterprises to prevent malicious collusion in joint price increases, and the shift in policy also added momentum to this accelerated adjustment, resulting in a sharp fall after the turn.
"this round of surge is due to the large profits of merchants in the spot market, so when the market turns, merchants drop their shipments one after another. In addition, at present, merchants are concerned about futures, and the rise and fall of futures has a direct guiding effect on spot transactions. Therefore, the sharp fall in futures results in poor spot transactions, which in turn depresses spot prices, and the drop in spot prices once again suppresses futures prices, entering a vicious circle. This round of rapid rise and fall also reflects the market mentality of merchants who buy up or down. " Fu Xiaoguang said.
It is understood that in the process of the recent black correction, the trading volume of domestic traders has dropped sharply, the average transaction volume of building materials traders is close to the historical low of the same period, and the market speculative sentiment has cooled sharply. With the sharp decline in finished wood prices, the procurement cost of the terminal has decreased, and the willingness of the terminal to replenish the stock has increased due to the low inventory of the terminal. Jiang Qiuyu said that in the later stage, we need to focus on the specific policies of domestic output removal, when building materials transactions will pick up sharply, and when the terminal will carry out centralized replenishment and other factors.
In Fu Xiaoguang's view, we need to focus on policy changes and spot demand in the near future. "the National standing Committee requires that prices rise too rapidly, and the purpose is not to let prices fall rapidly. As long as they return to a reasonable price range, the whole industrial chain will develop healthily, so the current rapid decline is more due to the market atmosphere. If upstream profits are affected, there may also be relevant policies to support prices. In addition, there is spot demand, which is the traditional off-season after entering June, which may affect demand, which is also one of the factors that the current market continues to weaken. "
However, market participants said that the decline of related varieties in nearly 5 trading days does not mean the end of the rising steel market.
"at present, the main trading logic is regulatory shouting and measures to cool the market, which believes that the de-production policy in 2021 will be looser than expected. However, it is worth noting that the current terminal demand for threaded hot rolls has not declined significantly, and the willingness to purchase terminals has increased with the decline in prices. Hot roll prices in Europe and the United States continue to rise, the price of hot rolls in the United States has reached 1690 US dollars per ton, and the price gap between domestic and foreign hot rolls continues to expand. " Jiang Qiuyu said.
Fu Xiaoguang said that the recent decline in steel futures is only short-and medium-term into the adjustment correction, in the lower reaches obviously can not accept the high price, the price naturally fell back to the equilibrium range of supply and demand. At present, the current futures prices have all returned to the prices at the end of April. Whether they can be accepted downstream or not, we need to observe the changes in demand after the market has stabilized in the near future. Therefore, in the future, investors need to pay attention to the policy orientation after the rapid decline in prices and the changes in market demand and inventory after the market stabilizes.
