April 2, today Friday, due to the impact of good Friday, the precious metals, crude oil market will be closed, the foreign exchange market will be closed at 11:00 in the evening, but the evening non-farm report will still be released as scheduled.
Last night, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose unexpectedly, but at the same time, the US manufacturing data for March was beautiful, US stocks rose sharply, and the S & P index broke through 4000 points for the first time.
The rise in the dollar index paused, losing the 93 mark, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 1.7% mark.
Spot gold continued to rise, withdrawing 1705 within the day to stabilize the attack, Europe and the United States continued to rise, rising as high as 1730 mark, this week's decline is almost fully recovered. As of the suspension of trading, gold was quoted at $1729.3 an ounce.
The rest of the city is too desolate for non-farmers! Optimistic expectations boost the US index, and the golden result will be reserved for next week.
Although the market is closed for the whole day, the United States will still report changes in non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly wage after the March quarterly adjustment at 20: 30 domestic time on Friday.
Twenty-five large investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, have published their forecasts for the data. Due to the improvement of weather conditions in March and the initial effect of large-scale vaccination of new crown vaccines, the level of economic activity is bound to rebound strongly, and the market is optimistic.
Forecasts from 25 large investment banks show that major investment banks are more optimistic about the growth of non-farm payrolls in March, but there is a wide gap in expectations among the investment banks.
Specifically, after the quarterly adjustment in March, the growth of non-farm payrolls in the United States is expected to be 500000 to 1 million, the unemployment rate is expected to be 5.9%, 6.1%, and the average annual rate of hourly wage growth is expected to be 5.1%, 5.4%.
The early announcement of small non-farmers on Wednesday predicted that tonight's data could hit a new high, with US ADP payrolls rising by 517000 in March, the highest increase since September last year.
The chief economist of the ADP pointed to a marked improvement in labour market data in March, which the report showed was the strongest growth since September 2020.
JP Morgan pointed out that non-farm payrolls in the United States are expected to soar by as much as 650000 in March. In this context, the backlog of unemployed people will be digested more than expected, and the unemployment rate will be further reduced by 0.2 percentage points to 6.0%.
This will further confirm the strength of the economy and drive US bond yields to rise further, forcing the dollar index to continue to rise, or once again break through the 93 mark, suppressing the rise of gold. However, due to the closure of the market, the impact on gold prices will not be reflected until Monday.
Not afraid of the unexpected rise in US first-time applications, US stocks hit a new high! The US index fell back and gold rose to 1730.
On Thursday night, the number of U.S. jobless claims rose to 719000 in the week to March 27, surpassing expectations of 680000 and a previous figure of 684000, according to data released by the Labor Department.
The agency commented that economic activity accelerated and labour market recovery strengthened, driven by increased vaccination and massive fiscal stimulus, but an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims could lead to more stimulus measures.
But another piece of data released at the same time once again boosted market sentiment. The manufacturing PMI of ISM in the United States recorded 64.7 in March, exceeding expectations of 61.3 and the previous value of 60.8.
The agency commented that the US manufacturing activity index soared in March to its fastest expansion since 1983, driven by strong growth in new orders.
The strong growth in new orders and production highlights demand from households and businesses, accelerating as fiscal stimulus provides clearer guidance to economic recovery as vaccination increases and epidemic-related restrictions fall. The results reinforced evidence that economic growth was accelerating and boosted stock market bullish sentiment.
Driven by this, US stocks were bullish across the board, with the S & D 500 breaking the 4000 mark for the first time to 4019.87 and up about 7 per cent in 2021 and about 80 per cent from its March 2020 low.
The Dow rose 0.52% to 33153.21, while the NASDAQ climbed 1.76% to 13480.11. The rise in the dollar index paused, losing the 93 mark, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 1.7% mark.
Gold continued to rise, recovering 1705 in the day, while European and American stocks continued to rise, reaching a peak near the 1730 mark, with almost all of this week's decline recovered.
