SMM1: metals on the outer disk rose and fell yesterday, with (LME) copper on the London Metal Exchange hitting its highest level since 2013 for the third day in a row on Thursday, as US President-elect Joe Biden is expected to push ahead with infrastructure spending after his Democratic Party wins control of the Senate. Us Democrats have won a resounding victory in Georgia's two Senate run-off elections, winning control of the Senate and boosting President-elect Joe Biden's prospects for pushing ahead with a $2 trillion infrastructure spending plan. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:30, selling tires was up 0.4%, Lun Zinc was down 0.2%, Lun Aluminum was up nearly 0.5%, Lunxi Nickel was down 0.1%, Lunxi was flat, Lun lead was up nearly 0.2%. Domestically, international copper and Shanghai copper were up nearly 2.2%, Shanghai aluminum was up nearly 1.7%, Shanghai lead was up nearly 0.8%, Shanghai zinc was up nearly 1.1%, and Shanghai Nickel was up nearly 1.5%. Shanghai tin fell nearly 0.3%.
In terms of copper, the overnight Shanghai Copper 2103 contract opened at 59300 yuan / ton. After opening, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper continued to rise, quickly rose to a high of 60410 yuan / ton in intraday trading, maintained a small shock at a high level of 60240 yuan / ton in late trading, and finally closed at 60240 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.21%. The turnover reached 70000 lots, and the position increased by 8071 lots to 109000 lots. On the spot side, with a series of effects such as the cold wave epidemic, downstream processing will gradually decrease before the New year. Traders all want to exchange cash for high prices, but they are not interested in buying at all, so it is difficult to see a large number of transactions. Continue to pay attention to inventory changes and market fluctuations, the spot market in the premise of high prices, rising water pattern may be difficult to maintain.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Market sentiment is on the rise. Copper Synchronize for nighttime delivery rushes higher.
In terms of aluminum, on the domestic side, the fundamentals supply side is slowly rising, consumption performance is seasonally declining, and the industry has entered the accumulation cycle. It is expected that the price center of gravity will fluctuate downward before the Spring Festival, and the lower price range is likely to be enlarged; attention should be paid to the impact of stock accumulation on the disk structure and market sentiment on absolute prices. Recently, due to the weakness of the US dollar index and the boost of oil prices, overseas aluminum prices are stronger than domestic ones, and overseas fundamentals are expected to be stronger than domestic ones in the first quarter, so the import window continues to close.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Aluminum ingots and bars continue to accumulate stock and the center of gravity of rising water moves down.
In terms of lead, overnight lead was affected by a slight rebound in the dollar index, falling slightly to close the negative, testing the middle track of Bollinger Road. In order to obstruct the unrest of presidential certification in the US Congress, political instability has triggered market risk aversion. Overnight Shanghai lead in the domestic basic metals rose in the atmosphere of high shock, long-empty game rose slightly, the top pressure of 15200 yuan / ton. The macro situation is external and stable, and the domestic macro situation still gives some support to Shanghai lead.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] overnight, lead in Shanghai rose slightly and the price of lead was still supported by the macro improvement in China.
In terms of zinc, the overnight strengthening of the outer disk led to the high operation of zinc in Shanghai, recovering last week's decline. From a fundamental point of view, although the domestic TC is still low and the supply of zinc ore is tight, it has not been transmitted to the smelter. According to the SMM survey, it is estimated that the refinery will maintain a relatively high output from January to February, while downstream consumption is gradually weakening, which is expected to limit the upward space for zinc prices. Pay short-term attention to the fermentation of the domestic epidemic situation.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] political clarity in the United States drives up zinc prices.
In terms of nickel, the market has gradually verified that the fundamentals of stainless steel have been significantly improved, while the fundamental performance of nickel itself is stable, and the comprehensive performance of the domestic electrolytic nickel market is better than that of nickel pig iron, and there are signs of slight improvement in the price of nickel pig iron with the limit of stainless steel; although the fundamental performance is OK, we should also pay attention to the increasing pressure of short-term bearish sentiment during the short-term rebound of the dollar index after the early overdraft macro-positive. Therefore, on the whole, there is a reason for nickel prices to be long and short, or to maintain a high volatility trend, and operators can further wait and see the performance of the post-holiday market.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel price high market atmosphere is still active the current price difference of stainless steel trading limit has been repaired.
Tin, yesterday, the spot price of Huxi rose at the bottom, the low-priced goods in the market were difficult to find, the spot in circulation in the market was less, the performance of the market premium was strong, and the mainstream discount: the 2103 contract Yunxi discount was 200,500 yuan / ton, the ordinary Yunzi discount was 500,500 yuan / ton, and the small brand discount was 1300 yuan / ton. 1800 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is not as good as the day before, and there is little downstream entry into the market. Today's forecast: Shanghai tin center of gravity slightly downward, today's spot is expected to be in the mainstream range of 155500-158000 yuan / ton.
"[1.8 Forecast of Tin prices Today]
In terms of black, thread rose nearly 1.7%, hot coil rose nearly 1.9%, coking coal rose nearly 3.1%, coke fell nearly 0.3%, and iron ore rose nearly 2.6%. In terms of iron ore, the turnover of low-grade ore has improved recently, mainly due to the continuous expansion of the price gap between low and low products. In addition, according to SMM research, most steel mills plan to complete the replenishment of raw materials such as iron ore before the Spring Festival by the end of this month; from a regional point of view, some steel enterprises in central and southern China have almost completed replenishment before the Spring Festival, while parts of East China and Tangshan take into account the proximity to the port, the replenishment progress is slightly inferior. According to SMM research, the domestic blast furnace operating rate remained at a high level of about 88 per cent this week, with rigid raw material procurement and replenishment demand continuing to support iron ore prices.
[SMM Morning meeting View] Volume and snail fundamentals are weakening and there is still support below spot prices.
Last-issue crude oil rose nearly 1.3 per cent NYMEX crude oil futures closed higher on Thursday, hitting an 11-month high as markets remained concerned about Saudi Arabia's unexpected commitment to further production cuts and the strength of the stock market, unaffected by political unrest in the US. Analysts point out that the oil market is likely to tighten in the first quarter, although demand weakens as a result of tighter liquidity restrictions in many consumer countries.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.2%, Shanghai silver rose slightly, and COMEX gold futures closed higher on Thursday, partly reversing the previous day's decline, despite rising u.s. bond yields and a stronger dollar. Analysts pointed out that the overnight confirmation by the US Congress of Biden's election as president, coupled with the fact that the Democratic Party won two Senate seats in Georgia, theoretically opened the door to stronger stimulus measures in the future.
As of 09:20, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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