[summary of institutional views] Gold fell first and then rose Mitsubishi bearish on the dollar

Publicado: Dec 11, 2020 08:19

SMM Network News:

Precious metal

Wells Fargo (Wells Fargo) said that the entire market will continue to indulge in massive liquidity next year, the situation will not change, so gold will continue to rise. The bank believes that there is still enough room for gold prices to rise next year, and gold prices will rise to $2100 to $2200 an ounce by the end of next year.

Independent Speculator's Lobo Tiggre says it is important to be careful that gold prices can fall very low, which would mean a 50 per cent drop in gold prices if there is a big correction from the bull market of the mid-1970s.

Frank Holmes, chief executive of US Global Investors, said it was not impossible for gold to rise another 40 per cent next year. "changes in the two standard deviations have occurred frequently over the past 21 years, and gold prices are likely to fluctuate between $400 and $800 over the next 12 months, that is, between $2200 and $2600 an ounce."

FXTM market analyst Han Tan said that higher spot gold prices will encounter gold ETF sell-off. "but in any case, it is time for gold to rise again, whether it is the US stimulus program or the Fed's stimulus to inflation, which will push up the price of gold."

Foreign exchange market

ECB: oil prices are expected to be $41.60 / barrel in 2020, $44.00 / barrel in 2021, $45.70 / barrel and $46.90 / barrel in 2022-23, respectively. The exchange rate of the euro against the dollar is expected to be 1.14 in 2020 and 1.18 in 2021-2023.

Frederik Ducrozet, a macro strategist at Pictet Asset Management, says today's stimulus appears to be a compromise between hawks and doves of the ECB.

Florian Hense, an economist at Berenberg, said the ECB had "made good on its promise" to realign its monetary policy tools to help the eurozone economy.

The Mitsubishi UFJ research team recently said that it had been bearish on the dollar until the end of the year. "A confirmed stimulus package and the announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee ((FOMC)) of increased purchases of long-term US bonds will cause the dollar to weaken before the end of the year."

ING said it was too early for the ECB to intervene more verbally as the trade-weighted euro approached its four-month average. The euro / dollar target is set at 1.25 in 2021, with an upside risk of 1.30.

The so-called new "deadline" is Sunday and the decline in sterling will continue until we find any new or concrete developments related to Brexit, Forexlive said.

Chris Ralph (Chris Ralph), chief global strategist at St James's Place, said there was significant "downside" for sterling.

Declaração sobre a Fonte de Dados: Com exceção das informações publicamente disponíveis, todos os demais dados são processados pela SMM com base em informações publicamente disponíveis, comunicação de mercado e com base no modelo de base de dados interna da SMM. São apenas para referência e não constituem recomendações para a tomada de decisão.

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[summary of institutional views] Gold fell first and then rose Mitsubishi bearish on the dollar - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)