SMM11 March 26: most of the non-ferrous metals market is red today. By the end of the day, Shanghai copper rose 1.06%, international copper rose 0.92%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.86%, Shanghai tin rose 0.38%, Shanghai nickel rose 0.19%, and Shanghai lead fell 0.16%. In terms of lead, on the supply side, environmental protection production restrictions in the north are a major factor restricting the release of primary reproduction, but the specific implementation depends on the weather pollution. At the same time, the production capacity of recycled lead is expected to be released before the end of the year in Anhui, Tianjin and other provinces. Offset by the two phases, the supply of lead ingots will be flat or increase slightly by the end of the year. On the consumer side, most of the large lead storage battery factories are already in full production, and the consumer demand for lead ingots is expected to remain stable before the end of the year, and we should also guard against the risk of a decline in the operating rate after the battery factories complete production and sales at the end of the year. To sum up, the trend of short-term accumulation of lead ingots may continue.
[SMM Analysis] the social inventory of lead ingots has increased by 64% in 2 months. Fundamental imbalance?
On the copper side, corporate profits rose by a record in the third quarter as the resumption of work and production continued and demand rebounded. It is obvious that foreign countries are still greatly affected by the novel coronavirus epidemic, but the capital markets have greater confidence in the long term, coupled with the continuous good news of vaccines from the market, which has led to copper prices to a certain extent. In addition, US dollar support continued to fall, falling below 92 to 91.9, and there was also support for copper prices.
[brief Review of SMM Copper Futures] bulls continue to increase positions in Shanghai Copper to break through 55000 per day with an upsurge of 55500 yuan / ton.
In terms of lead, Shanghai lead closed two consecutive negative, KDJ index downward exposure, but below is still supported by the 5-day moving average, while the fundamentals downstream consumption is not improving, it is difficult to provide upward power for Shanghai lead, but below the same northern environmental production restrictions and waste battery prices support, Shanghai lead is expected to maintain the trend of shock consolidation in the short term, short positions at night may continue to try to break through the lower 5-day moving average.
[brief Review of lead in SMM period] Shanghai lead continues to oscillate and consolidate in the short term.
In terms of tin, tin fluctuated all the way up last night with the support of short positions, and today's trading fluctuated near its high level, finally closing at 146410 yuan / ton, recovering all the land lost yesterday. Approaching the main change of months, positions in Shanghai tin 2101 contracts have continued to decline sharply in recent days. Short-term Shanghai tin is expected to fluctuate mainly near the EMA, with a support of 145000 yuan / ton below and a resistance of 147500 yuan / ton above.
[SMM tin brief review] short sellers reduce positions in Shanghai tin will recover all the land lost yesterday.
In terms of black, thread rose 0.08%, hot coil rose 1.29%, coking coal rose 1.1%, coke rose 0.97%, iron ore rose 2.11%, and stainless steel fell 0.72%. According to SMM research, the blast furnace operating rate of SMM was 88.5% on November 26th, up 0.11% from last week and 0.3% lower than the same period last year. Although the news of limited production still came out this week, it did not last long and had little impact on blast furnace production, while some of the previous overhaul steel mills resumed production this week, leading to a slight pick-up in the operating rate of the blast furnace.
"[SMM analysis] the fundamentals are divided, and the pattern of strong and weak boards may continue.
The previous period of crude oil fell 0.24%, and US crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly last week, extending the upward momentum that had occurred due to the expectation that novel coronavirus vaccine would boost fuel demand, and OPEC+ was still inclined to postpone production plans at next week's semi-annual general meeting when oil prices rose. The fundamentals of oil prices were still positive, but there were certain short selling and profit-taking selling in the market, which pushed INE oil prices down.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose 0.21%, Shanghai silver rose 0.7%, and spot gold rose on Thursday, as gloomy employment data in the United States and fears of a surge in novel coronavirus infection worldwide cast a shadow over the rapid economic recovery. and enhance the safe-haven charm of gold. Analysts point out that the number of initial jobless claims highlights the divergence between vaccine-driven optimism and the recent novel coronavirus epidemic. The report also raises the chances of further stimulus. The vaccine has sharply diluted the safe-haven demand for gold and will continue to have an impact until we finally move from deflation to inflation.
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