SMM11 March 23: London metal rose and fell mixed last Friday. In early trading today, the LME metal market was mixed. Len lead fell nearly 0.5%, Lunxi fell nearly 0.4%, Lun copper and Lunxi zinc fell nearly 0.2%, Lun aluminum slightly rose, Lunni rose nearly 0.25%. On the domestic side, Shanghai copper rose nearly 1.7%, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 2.8%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.5%, and Shanghai nickel rose nearly 2%. In China, Shanghai copper is up nearly 1.7%, Shanghai aluminum is up nearly 0.1%, Shanghai lead is up nearly 2.8%, Shanghai zinc is up nearly 0.5%, and Shanghai nickel is up nearly 2%. Shanghai and tin fell nearly 0.4%, while international copper rose nearly 1.9%. On Friday, the dollar performed steadily against most Gmur10 currencies, and the dollar index rebounded from nearly two-week lows amid late-day weakness in US stocks.
In terms of copper, copper prices broke through the shock range last week, and prices continued their upward trend until copper rose sharply in Friday night trading, refreshing a 19-year high. On the macro level, the good news of the vaccine diluted the pessimism that some of the epidemic continued to spread, and uncertainties continued to decrease, providing some momentum for the rise in copper prices. In terms of fundamentals, domestic inventories have continued to decline. According to SMM, social inventories decreased by 23800 tons to 218700 tons month-on-month last Wednesday, and social inventories have declined for six consecutive weeks. In addition, SHFE inventories decreased by 21183 tons month-on-month, and inventories dropped to a low of less than 100000 tons in a row. Inventories continued to fall, providing support and rebound momentum for copper prices.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] domestic inventories are falling low and copper is in short supply. Copper continues to hit high levels.
In terms of aluminum, the recent market sentiment has been constantly switching between the good vaccine and the worsening epidemic, and the trading atmosphere is complex and changeable. In the context of the decline in the US index and the pick-up in overseas demand, Lunal has recently recorded new highs, paying attention to the impact of follow-up market trading atmosphere and macro data such as the dollar index. Shanghai aluminum, low inventory decline and consumption stability in the fundamentals to give bulls strong confidence, Shanghai aluminum back structure is expected to continue to consolidate, strong trend to continue.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the immediate profit of electrolytic aluminum has broken a new high and low inventory to give strong support to Shanghai Aluminum.
In terms of lead, last week, Lun lead collected nine Lianyang, and the upward trend of Lun lead continued. Under the influence of the general rise of domestic basic metals and the continuous upward trend of lun lead, Shanghai lead has risen steadily at night, coupled with the recent production reduction and shutdown caused by environmental protection and the impact of blizzard weather, which has also given Shanghai lead a rising support. however, we still need to pay attention to the pressure of cautious sentiment on lead prices in the lower reaches of the domestic spot market. The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to rise by 275-325 yuan per ton today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Lun lead, Shanghai lead and lead both rose sharply and continued to accumulate the stock discount to expand.
Zinc, last Friday Lun Zinc recorded six Lianyang, the daily K center of gravity moved up, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form a suppression, the lower averages into a multi-headed arrangement. Last Friday, the good news of the two vaccines raised hopes of removing economic restrictions and helped Len Zinc to rise, but the severe form of the epidemic is expected to limit the upside of Len Zinc. Last Friday, Shanghai zinc recorded a small positive column, breaking through the Bollinger Road on the track to press, the lower averages into a multi-headed arrangement. Domestic TC continued to decline, South African zinc mine suspended, superimposed part of the domestic smelter maintenance plan, bullish sentiment, support zinc prices upward, but a small domestic base, downstream consumption slightly weaker, material drag zinc prices upward space.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] tight logic on the supply side boosts sentiment among bulls. Shanghai Zinc is still strong in the short term.
In terms of nickel, in terms of fundamentals, 300 series stainless steel shows a weak impact on the price of nickel industry chain products, and the weak atmosphere may continue. At present, there are no signs of production reduction in stainless steel plants, but we need to pay close attention to this trend. Nickel prices may be dragged down again. Pay attention to the support of Shanghai Nickel 119000 gate. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel is 115000-120000 yuan / ton, Lunni is 15650-16150 US dollars / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Vaccine has become the focus of recent macro attention. it is difficult for stainless steel diving to drag down the rise in nickel prices.
Tin, the recent LME tin spot for March futures continued to maintain a high level of rising water, indicating that overseas supply is tight; relevant surveys show that analysts and traders are mostly bearish on the outlook for the dollar, accounting for 63.2%, the outbreak and vaccine news will remain the main focus, the weak dollar will provide support for the lower part of Lunxi.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Tin returns to shock pattern during the period. The weaker US dollar will support Lunxi.
On the black side, threads fell nearly 1%, hot coils fell nearly 1.3%, coking coal rose nearly 2.3%, coke fell nearly 0.1%, iron ore fell nearly 0.7%, stainless steel rose nearly 1.3%, hot rolls, according to SMM, affected by the foreign epidemic, a large number of foreign manufacturing orders were transferred to domestic production, and then sent abroad, driving the demand for shipping containers, thus stimulating the increase in domestic demand for sheet steel. At the same time, export demand for small household appliances and sterilized household appliances has improved, leading to a pick-up in demand for cold rolling, thereby boosting the demand for sheet coil. Short-term spot prices are expected to remain supportive. What is noteworthy is that the current terminal and business fear of heights is becoming more and more obvious, coupled with the cold weather and the expectation of Beicai going south, the spot price rise has been suppressed. Therefore, it is expected that the follow-up spot prices are mainly interval shocks.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the price of elongated thread in the southward cycle of Beichang may still be supported in the short term.
The previous period of crude oil rose nearly 1%, and new York crude oil futures rose nearly 6% last week, the third consecutive week to achieve weekly gains. Pfizer and BioNTech SE applied on Friday for FDA to approve the emergency use authorization of novel coronavirus vaccine. Moderna released a preliminary analysis of positive phase III clinical trials and said it was close to applying for emergency use authorization. Cloth oil rose more than 2% on Friday, breaking the $45 mark, as good news about the development of a du vaccine for coronary disease raised hopes of removing economic restrictions and boosting demand for crude oil, helping oil prices rise.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.2% and Shanghai silver rose nearly 1.5%. International gold futures prices closed higher last Friday, but gold prices fell this week, recording a second consecutive week of decline. Despite the surge in novel coronavirus infection and the strengthening of epidemic prevention restrictions, gold buying momentum has significantly weakened, putting pressure on gold prices this week. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said on Friday that the market should be pleased because we still have enough resources, and he and White House Chief of staff John Meadows will hold talks with Republican leaders in Congress on Friday on more economic support.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
